Sat, Oct 11 2025 • 15:30 • Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani
Match Finished
3 - 0
Expected Goals
1.87 (league 1.25) 1.29 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
49.9% 22.6% 26.1%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.2%
2 - 1
9.6%
1 - 0
7.9%
Score & goals probability table
Livorno
0 1 2 3 4 5
Pineto 0 4.2% 5.5% 3.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
1 7.9% 10.2% 6.6% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2%
2 7.4% 9.6% 6.2% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2%
3 4.6% 6.0% 3.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
4 2.2% 2.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPinetoLivorno
Played55
Form20%27%
Attack50%20%
Defense0%20%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 12 | 0.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 28 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

73%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

73%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Pineto Livorno
HATHAT
Played448448
Wins0%50%25%25%25%25%
Draws50%0%25%25%0%13%
Loses50%50%50%50%75%63%

Form: Pineto: DWDWLLLL • Livorno: WLLLLWDL

League goals

Metric Pineto Livorno
HATHAT
GF total549134
GF avg1.31.01.10.30.80.5
GA total75124711
GA avg1.81.31.51.01.81.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePinetoLivorno
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.588%75%50%63%
1.525%50%0%50%
2.50%25%0%25%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPinetoLivorno
HATHAT
Clean sheets022213
Failed to score011314

Penalties

MetricPinetoLivorno
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total12

Streaks

MetricPinetoLivorno
Wins11
Draws11
Losses04

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins0-21-00-1
Biggest losses2-33-00-33-0
Goals For2211
Goals Against3333

Model comparison

MetricPinetoLivorno
Form43%57%
Att71%29%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution63%37%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total55.3%44.8%

Advice: Double chance : Pineto or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.45 @ 10Bet
Draw3.14 @ Pinnacle
Away2.92 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.22 @ Betano
Under 2.51.65 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.92 @ 188Bet
No1.87 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Pineto = 1.87 (league 1.25), Livorno = 1.29 (league 1.12)

Livorno
0 1 2 3 4 5
Pineto 0 4.2% 5.5% 3.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
1 7.9% 10.2% 6.6% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2%
2 7.4% 9.6% 6.2% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2%
3 4.6% 6.0% 3.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
4 2.2% 2.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 49.9% · Draw 22.6% · Away win 26.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1