Sun, Oct 19 2025 • 15:30 • Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani
Match Finished
3 - 0
Expected Goals
2.62 (league 1.22) 1.71 (league 1.06)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
52.3% 18.2% 23.6%
best score tips
2 - 1
7.7%
3 - 1
6.7%
2 - 2
6.6%
Score & goals probability table
Perugia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Pineto 0 1.3% 2.2% 1.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%
1 3.4% 5.9% 5.0% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4%
2 4.5% 7.7% 6.6% 3.8% 1.6% 0.6%
3 3.9% 6.7% 5.8% 3.3% 1.4% 0.5%
4 2.6% 4.4% 3.8% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3%
5 1.4% 2.3% 2.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPinetoPerugia
Played55
Form20%0%
Attack58%25%
Defense17%25%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.43 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 29 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

80%
FT probability

2.5+

56%
FT probability

3.5+

40%
FT probability

BTTS

76%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Pineto Perugia
HATHAT
Played549549
Wins20%50%33%0%0%0%
Draws40%0%22%20%50%33%
Loses40%50%44%80%50%67%

Form: Pineto: DWDWLLLLW • Perugia: DDDLLLLLL

League goals

Metric Pineto Perugia
HATHAT
GF total8412156
GF avg1.61.01.30.21.30.7
GA total75126814
GA avg1.41.31.31.22.01.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePinetoPerugia
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.589%67%44%89%
1.533%44%22%56%
2.511%22%0%11%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPinetoPerugia
HATHAT
Clean sheets123101
Failed to score011415

Penalties

MetricPinetoPerugia
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricPinetoPerugia
Wins10
Draws13
Losses40

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-2——
Biggest losses2-33-00-22-0
Goals For3212
Goals Against3323

Model comparison

MetricPinetoPerugia
Form100%0%
Att70%30%
Def47%53%
Poisson Distribution65%35%
H2h38%62%
Goals40%60%
Total52.0%48.0%

Advice: Double chance : Pineto or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.40 @ Bet365
Draw2.94 @ 188Bet
Away3.17 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.38 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.57 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.15 @ 188Bet
No1.75 @ 1xBet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Pineto = 2.62 (league 1.22), Perugia = 1.71 (league 1.06)

Perugia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Pineto 0 1.3% 2.2% 1.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%
1 3.4% 5.9% 5.0% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4%
2 4.5% 7.7% 6.6% 3.8% 1.6% 0.6%
3 3.9% 6.7% 5.8% 3.3% 1.4% 0.5%
4 2.6% 4.4% 3.8% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3%
5 1.4% 2.3% 2.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 52.3% · Draw 18.2% · Away win 23.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1