Sat, Nov 15 2025 • 13:30 • Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.39 (league 1.22) 1.24 (league 1.06)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
40.1% 26.1% 33.3%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.4%
1 - 0
10.0%
0 - 1
8.9%
Score & goals probability table
Athletic Carpi
0 1 2 3 4 5
Pineto 0 7.2% 8.9% 5.5% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2%
1 10.0% 12.4% 7.7% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2%
2 7.0% 8.6% 5.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
3 3.2% 4.0% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPinetoAthletic Carpi
Played55
Form73%67%
Attack83%58%
Defense75%58%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 27 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.65 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

72%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

71%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Pineto Athletic Carpi
HATHAT
Played76137613
Wins29%50%38%29%67%46%
Draws43%17%31%43%0%23%
Loses29%33%31%29%33%31%

Form: Pineto: DWDWLLLLWWDDW • Athletic Carpi: DWDLWLLWWDLWW

League goals

Metric Pineto Athletic Carpi
HATHAT
GF total127199716
GF avg1.71.21.51.31.21.2
GA total87159615
GA avg1.11.21.21.31.01.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePinetoAthletic Carpi
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.592%69%85%62%
1.538%31%31%38%
2.515%15%8%15%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPinetoAthletic Carpi
HATHAT
Clean sheets224235
Failed to score011112

Penalties

MetricPinetoAthletic Carpi
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricPinetoAthletic Carpi
Wins22
Draws21
Losses42

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-22-01-3
Biggest losses2-33-00-33-1
Goals For3223
Goals Against3333

Model comparison

MetricPinetoAthletic Carpi
Form52%48%
Att59%41%
Def63%38%
Poisson Distribution55%45%
H2h20%80%
Goals29%71%
Total46.3%53.8%

Advice: Double chance : Pineto or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.11 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.10 @ Bet365
Away4.05 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.58 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.57 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.17 @ Pinnacle
No1.75 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Pineto = 1.39 (league 1.22), Athletic Carpi = 1.24 (league 1.06)

Athletic Carpi
0 1 2 3 4 5
Pineto 0 7.2% 8.9% 5.5% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2%
1 10.0% 12.4% 7.7% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2%
2 7.0% 8.6% 5.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
3 3.2% 4.0% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 40.1% · Draw 26.1% · Away win 33.3%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1