Sat, Dec 20 2025 • 16:30 • Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani
Match Finished
1 - 0
Expected Goals
0.92 (league 1.22) 1.02 (league 1.06)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
31.6% 31.4% 36.8%
best score tips
0 - 1
14.7%
0 - 0
14.5%
1 - 1
13.5%
Score & goals probability table
Gubbio
0 1 2 3 4 5
Pineto 0 14.5% 14.7% 7.5% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1%
1 13.3% 13.5% 6.9% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
2 6.1% 6.2% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
3 1.9% 1.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPinetoGubbio
Played55
Form40%27%
Attack55%18%
Defense27%73%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.22 | 0.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.63 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

63%
FT probability

2.5+

44%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

67%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Pineto Gubbio
HATHAT
Played99189918
Wins33%33%33%11%33%22%
Draws33%44%39%78%33%56%
Loses33%22%28%11%33%22%

Form: Pineto: DWDWLLLLWWDDWWDLDD • Gubbio: WDDWWLDDLLWDDDDDLD

League goals

Metric Pineto Gubbio
HATHAT
GF total1312258816
GF avg1.41.31.40.90.90.9
GA total1112239716
GA avg1.21.31.31.00.80.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePinetoGubbio
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.589%72%67%67%
1.533%33%11%17%
2.517%22%11%6%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPinetoGubbio
HATHAT
Clean sheets325336
Failed to score112336

Penalties

MetricPinetoGubbio
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total32

Streaks

MetricPinetoGubbio
Wins22
Draws25
Losses42

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-21-00-3
Biggest losses0-33-00-22-0
Goals For3333
Goals Against3332

Model comparison

MetricPinetoGubbio
Form60%40%
Att75%25%
Def27%73%
Poisson Distribution48%52%
H2h9%91%
Goals36%64%
Total42.5%57.5%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Gubbio and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.43 @ Unibet
Draw3.10 @ Betano
Away3.24 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.44 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.65 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.09 @ 188Bet
No1.85 @ Betano
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Pineto = 0.92 (league 1.22), Gubbio = 1.02 (league 1.06)

Gubbio
0 1 2 3 4 5
Pineto 0 14.5% 14.7% 7.5% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1%
1 13.3% 13.5% 6.9% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
2 6.1% 6.2% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
3 1.9% 1.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 31.6% · Draw 31.4% · Away win 36.8%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1