Sun, Jan 4 2026 • 16:30 • Stadio Citta dell Aria
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.04 (league 1.21) 0.49 (league 1.09)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
48.6% 34.1% 17.2%
best score tips
1 - 0
22.4%
0 - 0
21.5%
2 - 0
11.7%
Score & goals probability table
Perugia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 0 21.5% 10.6% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
1 22.4% 11.1% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 11.7% 5.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 4.1% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricGuidonia Montecelio 1937Perugia
Played55
Form47%40%
Attack24%41%
Defense82%71%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.87 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.65 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

54%
FT probability

2.5+

38%
FT probability

3.5+

27%
FT probability

BTTS

56%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Perugia
HATHAT
Played9101910919
Wins33%50%42%30%0%16%
Draws44%20%32%20%44%32%
Loses22%30%26%50%56%53%

Form: Guidonia Montecelio 1937: DLWLWWLLWWDWWLDWDDD • Perugia: DDDLLLLLLLWDDDWLLLW

League goals

Metric Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Perugia
HATHAT
GF total6101610818
GF avg0.71.00.81.00.90.9
GA total571291625
GA avg0.60.70.60.91.81.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineGuidonia Montecelio 1937Perugia
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.568%42%53%79%
1.516%21%32%42%
2.50%0%5%11%
3.50%0%5%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricGuidonia Montecelio 1937Perugia
HATHAT
Clean sheets6511404
Failed to score426549

Penalties

MetricGuidonia Montecelio 1937Perugia
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total32

Streaks

MetricGuidonia Montecelio 1937Perugia
Wins21
Draws13
Losses27

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-24-0—
Biggest losses0-22-10-23-0
Goals For2242
Goals Against2223

Model comparison

MetricGuidonia Montecelio 1937Perugia
Form54%46%
Att36%64%
Def63%38%
Poisson Distribution68%32%
H2h20%80%
Goals25%75%
Total44.3%55.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Perugia and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.61 @ Pinnacle
Draw2.96 @ 188Bet
Away3.05 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.55 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.52 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.20 @ 188Bet
No1.76 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Guidonia Montecelio 1937 = 1.04 (league 1.21), Perugia = 0.49 (league 1.09)

Perugia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 0 21.5% 10.6% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
1 22.4% 11.1% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 11.7% 5.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 4.1% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 48.6% · Draw 34.1% · Away win 17.2%

vtt 1 , vtd1