Sat, Feb 28 2026 • 19:30 • Stadio Comunale Riviera delle Palme
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.84 (league 1.22) 0.88 (league 1.09)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
31.8% 33.8% 34.4%
best score tips
0 - 0
17.9%
0 - 1
15.8%
1 - 0
15.0%
Score & goals probability table
Livorno
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sambenedettese 0 17.9% 15.8% 7.0% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
1 15.0% 13.2% 5.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
2 6.3% 5.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
3 1.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSambenedetteseLivorno
Played55
Form7%60%
Attack20%47%
Defense47%53%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.67 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.67 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

63%
FT probability

2.5+

44%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

62%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sambenedettese Livorno
HATHAT
Played131427151227
Wins15%21%19%47%25%37%
Draws23%43%33%20%8%15%
Loses62%36%48%33%67%48%

Form: Sambenedettese: WDLDLWWWLLLLDDDLDLDDWLDLLLL • Livorno: WLLLLWDLLWLLLDWDWDLLWWLWWLW

League goals

Metric Sambenedettese Livorno
HATHAT
GF total8152320929
GF avg0.61.10.91.30.81.1
GA total151631192039
GA avg1.21.11.11.31.71.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSambenedetteseLivorno
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.556%78%70%78%
1.522%30%33%48%
2.54%4%4%19%
3.54%4%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSambenedetteseLivorno
HATHAT
Clean sheets336336
Failed to score8412358

Penalties

MetricSambenedetteseLivorno
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%6 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total36

Streaks

MetricSambenedetteseLivorno
Wins32
Draws31
Losses44

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-20-23-10-2
Biggest losses0-24-20-33-0
Goals For4232
Goals Against2433

Model comparison

MetricSambenedetteseLivorno
Form10%90%
Att30%70%
Def47%53%
Poisson Distribution52%48%
H2h0%100%
Goals38%63%
Total35.4%64.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Livorno

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.30 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.15 @ 188Bet
Away3.19 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.22 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.65 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.96 @ 188Bet
No1.87 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Sambenedettese = 0.84 (league 1.22), Livorno = 0.88 (league 1.09)

Livorno
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sambenedettese 0 17.9% 15.8% 7.0% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1%
1 15.0% 13.2% 5.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
2 6.3% 5.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
3 1.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 31.8% · Draw 33.8% · Away win 34.4%

vtt 3 , vtd1