Sat, Feb 28 2026 • 19:30 • Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.92 (league 1.22) 0.44 (league 1.09)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
71.8% 19.3% 7.6%
best score tips
1 - 0
18.1%
2 - 0
17.4%
3 - 0
11.1%
Score & goals probability table
Athletic Carpi
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ascoli 0 9.4% 4.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 18.1% 8.0% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
2 17.4% 7.7% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 11.1% 4.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 5.3% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAscoliAthletic Carpi
Played55
Form87%33%
Attack100%23%
Defense54%69%
Goals For (tot | avg)14 | 2.83 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.24 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

65%
FT probability

2.5+

46%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

60%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Ascoli Athletic Carpi
HATHAT
Played141428151328
Wins57%57%57%27%38%32%
Draws36%21%29%47%8%29%
Loses7%21%14%27%54%39%

Form: Ascoli: DWDWWWWWWDWLDWLDWDDLWLWWWDWW • Athletic Carpi: DWDLWLLWWDLWWLWWDLDLDLLDLLDW

League goals

Metric Ascoli Athletic Carpi
HATHAT
GF total252348161127
GF avg1.81.61.71.10.81.0
GA total81119161733
GA avg0.60.80.71.11.31.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAscoliAthletic Carpi
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%50%68%75%
1.554%11%25%29%
2.532%4%4%11%
3.57%4%0%4%
4.54%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAscoliAthletic Carpi
HATHAT
Clean sheets8614347
Failed to score437459

Penalties

MetricAscoliAthletic Carpi
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total51

Streaks

MetricAscoliAthletic Carpi
Wins62
Draws21
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-00-32-01-3
Biggest losses0-24-20-34-2
Goals For5323
Goals Against2434

Model comparison

MetricAscoliAthletic Carpi
Form72%28%
Att82%18%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution81%19%
H2h71%29%
Goals56%44%
Total67.0%33.0%

Advice: Winner : Ascoli

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.53 @ Unibet
Draw4.01 @ Pinnacle
Away7.17 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.95 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.88 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.15 @ Pinnacle
No1.73 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Ascoli = 1.92 (league 1.22), Athletic Carpi = 0.44 (league 1.09)

Athletic Carpi
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ascoli 0 9.4% 4.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 18.1% 8.0% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
2 17.4% 7.7% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
3 11.1% 4.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 5.3% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 71.8% · Draw 19.3% · Away win 7.6%

vtt 5 , vtd1