Wed, Mar 4 2026 • 17:00 • Stadio Pietro Barbetti
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.04 (league 1.21) 0.58 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
46.0% 33.6% 20.3%
best score tips
1 - 0
20.5%
0 - 0
19.7%
1 - 1
12.0%
Score & goals probability table
Athletic Carpi
0 1 2 3 4 5
Gubbio 0 19.7% 11.5% 3.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
1 20.5% 12.0% 3.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
2 10.7% 6.2% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
3 3.7% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricGubbioAthletic Carpi
Played55
Form67%27%
Attack31%23%
Defense85%46%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.83 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.47 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

54%
FT probability

2.5+

38%
FT probability

3.5+

27%
FT probability

BTTS

59%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Gubbio Athletic Carpi
HATHAT
Played131528151429
Wins31%33%32%27%36%31%
Draws54%33%43%47%7%28%
Loses15%33%25%27%57%41%

Form: Gubbio: WDDWWLDDLLWDDDDDLDLDWWLWWDLW • Athletic Carpi: DWDLWLLWWDLWWLWWDLDLDLLDLLDWL

League goals

Metric Gubbio Athletic Carpi
HATHAT
GF total121123161127
GF avg0.90.70.81.10.80.9
GA total101020162036
GA avg0.80.70.71.11.41.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineGubbioAthletic Carpi
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.564%57%66%76%
1.511%11%24%31%
2.57%4%3%14%
3.50%0%0%3%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricGubbioAthletic Carpi
HATHAT
Clean sheets6612347
Failed to score46104610

Penalties

MetricGubbioAthletic Carpi
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricGubbioAthletic Carpi
Wins22
Draws51
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-32-01-3
Biggest losses0-22-00-33-0
Goals For3323
Goals Against3234

Model comparison

MetricGubbioAthletic Carpi
Form71%29%
Att57%43%
Def78%22%
Poisson Distribution66%34%
H2h100%0%
Goals100%0%
Total68.0%32.0%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Gubbio or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.00 @ Unibet
Draw3.18 @ Pinnacle
Away4.75 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.55 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.55 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.32 @ 188Bet
No1.67 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Gubbio = 1.04 (league 1.21), Athletic Carpi = 0.58 (league 1.10)

Athletic Carpi
0 1 2 3 4 5
Gubbio 0 19.7% 11.5% 3.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
1 20.5% 12.0% 3.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
2 10.7% 6.2% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
3 3.7% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 46.0% · Draw 33.6% · Away win 20.3%

vtt 1 , vtd1