Wed, Mar 4 2026 • 19:30 •
Stadio Armando Picchi
Expected Goals
1.71 (league 1.22)
1.20 (league 1.09)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 48.5% | 23.9% | 26.6% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.2%
2 - 1
9.6%
1 - 0
9.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Perugia | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Livorno | 0 | 5.5% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.4% | 11.2% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 8.0% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 4.5% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Livorno | Perugia |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Attack | 46% | 31% |
| Defense | 69% | 62% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
70%
FT probability
2.5+
49%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Livorno | Perugia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 13 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 28 |
| Wins | 47% | 23% | 36% | 20% | 15% | 18% |
| Draws | 20% | 15% | 18% | 33% | 31% | 32% |
| Loses | 33% | 62% | 46% | 47% | 54% | 50% |
Form: Livorno: WLLLLWDLLWLLLDWDWDLLWWLWWLWD • Perugia: DDDLLLLLLLWDDDWLLLWWDLLDWLDL
League goals
| Metric | Livorno | Perugia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 9 | 29 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 19 | 20 | 39 | 14 | 21 | 35 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Livorno | Perugia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 68% | 75% | 61% | 82% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 46% | 25% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 4% | 18% | 4% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Livorno | Perugia | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Livorno | Perugia |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 6 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 6 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Livorno | Perugia |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 4 | 7 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-0 | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Livorno | Perugia |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 60% | 40% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 61% | 39% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 23% | 77% |
| Total | 53.4% | 46.6% |
Advice: Double chance : Livorno or draw
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Livorno = 1.71 (league 1.22), Perugia = 1.20 (league 1.09)
| Perugia | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Livorno | 0 | 5.5% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.4% | 11.2% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 8.0% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 4.5% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 48.5% · Draw 23.9% · Away win 26.6%
vtt 1 , vtd1