Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 16:00 •
Stadio Comunale Donato Curcio
Expected Goals
1.37 (league 1.49)
0.81 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 49.7% | 27.8% | 22.2% |
best score tips
1 - 0
15.5%
1 - 1
12.6%
0 - 0
11.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Sorrento | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| AZ Picerno | 0 | 11.3% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.5% | 12.6% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 10.6% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
AZ Picerno carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 92 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: AZ Picerno +16.8, Sorrento +1.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
AZ Picerno
vs
Sorrento
Elo gapAZ Picerno +92
Home / draw / away50% / 20% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo2884.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2884.1
Elo home share
63%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | AZ Picerno | Sorrento |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1470.6 | 1413.5 |
| Form Elo | 1472.3 | 1407.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1488.7 | 1435.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1468.4 | 1416.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1501.2 | 1421.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +16.8 | +1.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. AZ Picerno last-5 Elo change: +16.8; Sorrento last-5 Elo change: +1.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | AZ Picerno | Sorrento |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 33% |
| Attack | 70% | 50% |
| Defense | 40% | 20% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
72%
FT probability
2.5+
51%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | AZ Picerno | Sorrento | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 18 | 19 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 37 |
| Wins | 22% | 26% | 24% | 26% | 22% | 24% |
| Draws | 50% | 16% | 32% | 47% | 11% | 30% |
| Loses | 28% | 58% | 43% | 26% | 67% | 46% |
AZ PicernoDDWLLDWLLLLDLLWLLLDDWDDWLWWLDDLDLDWWL
SorrentoDLLLDDWDWDDDLLLWDWDLWLLWLWLWLLLLDLWLD
League goals
| Metric | AZ Picerno | Sorrento | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 22 | 21 | 43 | 26 | 13 | 39 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 21 | 34 | 55 | 25 | 30 | 55 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | AZ Picerno | Sorrento | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 73% | 84% | 65% | 78% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 49% | 35% | 51% |
| 2.5 | 5% | 8% | 5% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | AZ Picerno | Sorrento | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 13 |
Penalties
| Metric | AZ Picerno | Sorrento |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 7 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 7 |
Streaks
| Metric | AZ Picerno | Sorrento |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 4 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-2 | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 6-2 | 0-2 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | AZ Picerno | Sorrento |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 58% | 42% |
| Att | 58% | 42% |
| Def | 57% | 43% |
| Poisson Distribution | 62% | 38% |
| H2h | 85% | 15% |
| Goals | 80% | 20% |
| Total | 66.7% | 33.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…