Sun, Aug 31 2025 • 21:00 • Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.86 (league 1.16) 0.55 (league 0.91)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
40.6% 37.4% 22.0%
best score tips
0 - 0
24.4%
1 - 0
21.0%
0 - 1
13.4%
Score & goals probability table
Penarol
0 1 2 3 4 5
Racing Montevideo 0 24.4% 13.4% 3.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
1 21.0% 11.5% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 9.0% 5.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
3 2.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricRacing MontevideoPenarol
Played44
Form50%75%
Attack21%57%
Defense57%79%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.88 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.53 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

65%
FT probability

2.5+

46%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

67%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Racing Montevideo Penarol
HATHAT
Played224314
Wins50%50%50%100%0%75%
Draws0%0%0%0%0%0%
Loses50%50%50%0%100%25%

Form: Racing Montevideo: WWLL • Penarol: WWLW

League goals

Metric Racing Montevideo Penarol
HATHAT
GF total123718
GF avg0.51.00.82.31.02.0
GA total156123
GA avg0.52.51.50.32.00.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineRacing MontevideoPenarol
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.550%75%100%50%
1.525%25%75%25%
2.50%25%25%0%
3.50%25%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricRacing MontevideoPenarol
HATHAT
Clean sheets101202
Failed to score112000

Penalties

MetricRacing MontevideoPenarol
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricRacing MontevideoPenarol
Wins22
Draws00
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-01-23-0—
Biggest losses0-14-0—2-1
Goals For1231
Goals Against1412

Model comparison

MetricRacing MontevideoPenarol
Form40%60%
Att27%73%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution57%43%
H2h50%50%
Goals56%44%
Total43.8%56.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Penarol

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.55 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.58 @ Pinnacle
Away1.90 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.37 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.62 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.17 @ Pinnacle
No1.75 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Racing Montevideo = 0.86 (league 1.16), Penarol = 0.55 (league 0.91)

Penarol
0 1 2 3 4 5
Racing Montevideo 0 24.4% 13.4% 3.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
1 21.0% 11.5% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 9.0% 5.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
3 2.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 40.6% · Draw 37.4% · Away win 22.0%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1