Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.45 (league 1.59)
3.67 (league 1.19)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.9% | 5.6% | 75.9% |
best score tips
0 - 3
13.3%
0 - 4
12.2%
0 - 2
10.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Belasica | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Vardar Negotino | 0 | 1.6% | 5.9% | 10.9% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 9.0% |
| 1 | 0.7% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.1% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Belasica carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 184 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Vardar Negotino -8.4, Belasica +12.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Vardar Negotino
vs
Belasica
Elo gapBelasica +184
Home / draw / away21% / 18% / 61%
Expected home share26%
Combined Elo2944.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2944.5
Elo home share
26%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Vardar Negotino | Belasica |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1362.6 | 1581.9 |
| Form Elo | 1353.9 | 1590.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1441.4 | 1570.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1406.5 | 1638.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1123.8 | 1670.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -8.4 | +12.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Vardar Negotino last-5 Elo change: -8.4; Belasica last-5 Elo change: +12.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Vardar Negotino | Belasica |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 60% |
| Attack | 17% | 33% |
| Defense | 50% | 96% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 1 | 0.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
91%
FT probability
2.5+
64%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Vardar Negotino | Belasica | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 13 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 25 |
| Wins | 25% | 15% | 20% | 54% | 67% | 60% |
| Draws | 17% | 15% | 16% | 15% | 17% | 16% |
| Loses | 58% | 69% | 64% | 31% | 17% | 24% |
Vardar NegotinoWLLLWLLWLDLLLDDLLLLWLLWLD
BelasicaDWWWWWLLLWWWLWWLLWWWWDDWD
League goals
| Metric | Vardar Negotino | Belasica | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 15 | 29 | 26 | 23 | 49 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 28 | 43 | 71 | 10 | 7 | 17 |
| GA avg | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Vardar Negotino | Belasica | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 72% | 88% | 72% | 52% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 72% | 44% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 8% | 44% | 32% | 4% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 28% | 16% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 20% | 12% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Vardar Negotino | Belasica | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Vardar Negotino | Belasica |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Vardar Negotino | Belasica |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-2 | 8-1 | 1-7 |
| Biggest losses | 1-8 | 8-1 | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Goals Against | 8 | 8 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Vardar Negotino | Belasica |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 31% | 69% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 8% | 92% |
| Poisson Distribution | 10% | 90% |
| H2h | 7% | 93% |
| Goals | 19% | 81% |
| Total | 18.0% | 82.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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