Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 12:00 •
21 Kasım Şehir Stadyumu
Expected Goals
2.13 (league 1.58)
0.94 (league 1.34)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 62.5% | 19.8% | 15.5% |
best score tips
2 - 0
10.5%
1 - 0
9.9%
2 - 1
9.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Fethiyespor | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Mardin 1969 | 0 | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 9.3% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 10.5% | 9.9% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 7.5% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Mardin 1969 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 173 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Mardin 1969 +27.6, Fethiyespor +30.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Mardin 1969
vs
Fethiyespor
Elo gapMardin 1969 +173
Home / draw / away60% / 18% / 22%
Expected home share73%
Combined Elo3162.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3162.5
Elo home share
73%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Mardin 1969 | Fethiyespor |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1650.1 | 1512.4 |
| Form Elo | 1659.5 | 1529.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1579 | 1499.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1702.4 | 1513 |
| Defense Elo | 1667 | 1567.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +27.6 | +30.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Mardin 1969 last-5 Elo change: +27.6; Fethiyespor last-5 Elo change: +30.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Mardin 1969 | Fethiyespor |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 53% |
| Attack | 67% | 50% |
| Defense | 58% | 42% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
83%
FT probability
2.5+
58%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Mardin 1969 | Fethiyespor | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 17 | 31 | 17 | 15 | 32 |
| Wins | 71% | 59% | 65% | 24% | 40% | 31% |
| Draws | 14% | 12% | 13% | 53% | 7% | 31% |
| Loses | 14% | 29% | 23% | 24% | 53% | 38% |
Mardin 1969LDWWWWWWWWDWWLWDDLWLWWLWLWWWLWW
FethiyesporLDLWDWLWLDLDLLDLDLWLWWDWDWLWDLWD
League goals
| Metric | Mardin 1969 | Fethiyespor | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 29 | 32 | 61 | 28 | 21 | 49 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 12 | 13 | 25 | 17 | 24 | 41 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Mardin 1969 | Fethiyespor | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 55% | 66% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 55% | 23% | 38% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 3% | 16% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 0% | 13% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 10% | 0% | 9% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Mardin 1969 | Fethiyespor | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Mardin 1969 | Fethiyespor |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Mardin 1969 | Fethiyespor |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 8 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-6 | 7-0 | 0-6 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 2-0 | 2-4 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Mardin 1969 | Fethiyespor |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 57% | 43% |
| Def | 58% | 42% |
| Poisson Distribution | 71% | 29% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 42% | 58% |
| Total | 56.3% | 43.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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