2. Frauen Bundesliga — Germany
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 12:00 • Stadion am Bruchweg
Not Started

Mainz 05 W

—

Bochum

Expected Goals
2.47 (league 1.87) 1.03 (league 1.60)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
64.8% 17.2% 13.9%
best score tips
2 - 1
9.5%
2 - 0
9.2%
3 - 1
7.8%
Score & goals probability table
Bochum
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mainz 05 W 0 3.0% 3.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
1 7.4% 7.7% 4.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
2 9.2% 9.5% 4.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1%
3 7.6% 7.8% 4.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
4 4.7% 4.8% 2.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
5 2.3% 2.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home strong edge

Mainz 05 W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 136 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Mainz 05 W +56.2, Bochum -16.5.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
Mainz 05 W Elo 1579.9 · +56.2
vs
Bochum Elo 1479.2 · -16.5
Elo gapMainz 05 W +136
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share69%
Combined Elo3059.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3059.1
Elo home share 69%
Match tone Heavy Favorite
Metric Mainz 05 W Bochum
Overall Elo1579.91479.2
Form Elo1602.11481.3
Home / Away Elo1526.11522.9
Attack Elo1740.61475.9
Defense Elo1543.91487.2
Last 5 Elo change+56.2-16.5

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Mainz 05 W last-5 Elo change: +56.2; Bochum last-5 Elo change: -16.5.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMainz 05 WBochum
Played55
Form100%33%
Attack100%6%
Defense69%81%
Goals For (tot | avg)22 | 4.41 | 0.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 13 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

71%
FT probability

3.5+

50%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Mainz 05 W Bochum
HATHAT
Played111122111122
Wins55%64%59%27%55%41%
Draws27%9%18%18%27%23%
Loses18%27%23%55%18%36%
Mainz 05 WLWDWLDLWWWWWWLDDLWWWWW
BochumWDWLWDWLLLLWLWWDWDWLDL

League goals

Metric Mainz 05 W Bochum
HATHAT
GF total362561151631
GF avg3.32.32.81.41.51.4
GA total121628141529
GA avg1.11.51.31.31.41.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMainz 05 WBochum
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.573%73%59%73%
1.568%36%36%32%
2.564%9%23%14%
3.536%5%9%5%
4.518%5%9%5%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMainz 05 WBochum
HATHAT
Clean sheets516336
Failed to score336639

Penalties

MetricMainz 05 WBochum
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricMainz 05 WBochum
Wins62
Draws21
Losses14

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins7-10-46-01-3
Biggest losses4-53-00-36-0
Goals For7463
Goals Against5336

Model comparison

MetricMainz 05 WBochum
Form75%25%
Att96%4%
Def38%63%
Poisson Distribution71%29%
H2h100%0%
Goals60%40%
Total68.0%32.2%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • Mainz 05 W vs Bochum