Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Tooting & Mitcham Community Sports Club
Expected Goals
1.67 (league 1.73)
2.06 (league 1.48)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 30.8% | 21.1% | 45.4% |
best score tips
1 - 2
8.5%
1 - 1
8.3%
2 - 2
7.1%
Score & goals probability table
| AFC Portchester | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Kingstonian | 0 | 2.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 4.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 3.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
AFC Portchester carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 81 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Kingstonian +1.9, AFC Portchester +1.4.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Kingstonian
vs
AFC Portchester
Elo gapAFC Portchester +81
Home / draw / away31% / 21% / 48%
Expected home share39%
Combined Elo3051.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3051.5
Elo home share
39%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Kingstonian | AFC Portchester |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1468 | 1583.5 |
| Form Elo | 1471.2 | 1576 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1461.4 | 1535.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1520.9 | 1642.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1418.5 | 1563.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +1.9 | +1.4 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Kingstonian last-5 Elo change: +1.9; AFC Portchester last-5 Elo change: +1.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Kingstonian | AFC Portchester |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 60% |
| Attack | 18% | 50% |
| Defense | 82% | 73% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
69%
FT probability
3.5+
49%
FT probability
BTTS
80%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Kingstonian | AFC Portchester | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 18 | 20 | 38 | 21 | 19 | 40 |
| Wins | 39% | 35% | 37% | 52% | 53% | 53% |
| Draws | 22% | 15% | 18% | 19% | 11% | 15% |
| Loses | 39% | 50% | 45% | 29% | 37% | 33% |
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League goals
| Metric | Kingstonian | AFC Portchester | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 32 | 30 | 62 | 47 | 35 | 82 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| GA total | 31 | 38 | 69 | 26 | 31 | 57 |
| GA avg | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Kingstonian | AFC Portchester | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 84% | 87% | 80% | 70% |
| 1.5 | 53% | 61% | 63% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 21% | 26% | 35% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 5% | 8% | 20% | 5% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 8% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Kingstonian | AFC Portchester | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Kingstonian | AFC Portchester |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Kingstonian | AFC Portchester |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 6 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-2 | 0-4 | 5-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-0 | 0-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Kingstonian | AFC Portchester |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 27% | 73% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 43% | 57% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 40% | 60% |
| Total | 42.8% | 57.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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