Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Wellesley Recreation Ground
Expected Goals
1.73 (league 1.57)
0.70 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 61.3% | 23.2% | 14.7% |
best score tips
1 - 0
15.3%
2 - 0
13.2%
1 - 1
10.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Grays Athletic | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Gorleston | 0 | 8.8% | 6.2% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.2% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 7.6% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Gorleston carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 133 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Gorleston -15.2, Grays Athletic -10.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Gorleston
vs
Grays Athletic
Elo gapGorleston +133
Home / draw / away56% / 18% / 26%
Expected home share68%
Combined Elo2968.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2968.6
Elo home share
68%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Gorleston | Grays Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1533.1 | 1435.5 |
| Form Elo | 1521.5 | 1424.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1538.5 | 1462 |
| Attack Elo | 1531.9 | 1375.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1492.7 | 1526.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -15.2 | -10.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Gorleston last-5 Elo change: -15.2; Grays Athletic last-5 Elo change: -10.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Gorleston | Grays Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 40% |
| Attack | 39% | 28% |
| Defense | 39% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Gorleston | Grays Athletic | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 20 | 21 | 41 | 21 | 20 | 41 |
| Wins | 65% | 38% | 51% | 43% | 15% | 29% |
| Draws | 15% | 14% | 15% | 14% | 25% | 20% |
| Loses | 20% | 48% | 34% | 43% | 60% | 51% |
GorlestonWWLWDWWLLWWLWWDWWLWLDDWWLWWLLWDDWLWLLWLWL
Grays AthleticWLDLLDDDWDDLWWLLLWLLWLLLWDLWLLWLDWLLLWLWL
League goals
| Metric | Gorleston | Grays Athletic | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 32 | 34 | 66 | 27 | 16 | 43 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 22 | 41 | 63 | 24 | 33 | 57 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Gorleston | Grays Athletic | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 71% | 56% | 76% |
| 1.5 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 24% | 15% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 12% | 5% | 5% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 5% | 2% | 2% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Gorleston | Grays Athletic | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 9 | 3 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 18 |
Penalties
| Metric | Gorleston | Grays Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Gorleston | Grays Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 6-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 6-1 | 0-3 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 6 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Gorleston | Grays Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 58% | 42% |
| Def | 35% | 65% |
| Poisson Distribution | 70% | 30% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 52.2% | 47.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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