Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Memorial Field
Expected Goals
0.86 (league 1.57)
1.91 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 16.3% | 21.7% | 60.7% |
best score tips
0 - 1
12.0%
0 - 2
11.5%
1 - 1
10.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Waltham Abbey | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Downham Town | 0 | 6.3% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 5.4% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 2.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Waltham Abbey carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 140 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Downham Town +12.5, Waltham Abbey -7.6.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Downham Town
vs
Waltham Abbey
Elo gapWaltham Abbey +140
Home / draw / away25% / 18% / 57%
Expected home share31%
Combined Elo3018.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3018.4
Elo home share
31%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Downham Town | Waltham Abbey |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1421.8 | 1596.6 |
| Form Elo | 1430.8 | 1591.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1453.3 | 1515.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1406.8 | 1725.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1430.1 | 1558.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +12.5 | -7.6 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Downham Town last-5 Elo change: +12.5; Waltham Abbey last-5 Elo change: -7.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Downham Town | Waltham Abbey |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 67% |
| Attack | 28% | 67% |
| Defense | 67% | 78% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 12 | 2.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
82%
FT probability
2.5+
58%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Downham Town | Waltham Abbey | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 20 | 21 | 41 | 21 | 20 | 41 |
| Wins | 20% | 19% | 20% | 81% | 35% | 59% |
| Draws | 35% | 24% | 29% | 10% | 25% | 17% |
| Loses | 45% | 57% | 51% | 10% | 40% | 24% |
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Waltham AbbeyWDDWWDLLWWWLLLWWWWWWWDWDWLLDWWWLWWLWWWLWD
League goals
| Metric | Downham Town | Waltham Abbey | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 24 | 41 | 56 | 30 | 86 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| GA total | 31 | 39 | 70 | 18 | 30 | 48 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Downham Town | Waltham Abbey | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 68% | 83% | 85% | 63% |
| 1.5 | 27% | 54% | 56% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 5% | 22% | 39% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 12% | 17% | 5% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 7% | 2% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Downham Town | Waltham Abbey | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 15 |
| Failed to score | 7 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Downham Town | Waltham Abbey |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Downham Town | Waltham Abbey |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 7 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-2 | 5-0 | 2-7 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 4-0 | 1-2 | 6-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Downham Town | Waltham Abbey |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 38% | 63% |
| Att | 29% | 71% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 30% | 70% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 40% | 60% |
| Total | 35.4% | 64.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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