Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
The Staxson Stadium
Expected Goals
2.99 (league 1.90)
1.01 (league 1.55)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 68.9% | 13.3% | 9.5% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.3%
3 - 1
8.2%
2 - 0
8.2%
Score & goals probability table
| VCD Athletic | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sittingbourne | 0 | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 5.5% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 8.2% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 8.2% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 6.1% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 3.6% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Sittingbourne carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 222 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Sittingbourne -16.9, VCD Athletic -22.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Sittingbourne
vs
VCD Athletic
Elo gapSittingbourne +222
Home / draw / away64% / 18% / 18%
Expected home share78%
Combined Elo2977.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2977.3
Elo home share
78%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Sittingbourne | VCD Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1581.9 | 1395.4 |
| Form Elo | 1568.4 | 1376.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1556.5 | 1446.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1610.7 | 1498.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1577.6 | 1277.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -16.9 | -22.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Sittingbourne last-5 Elo change: -16.9; VCD Athletic last-5 Elo change: -22.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Sittingbourne | VCD Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 20% |
| Attack | 35% | 9% |
| Defense | 65% | 57% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
70%
FT probability
3.5+
50%
FT probability
BTTS
81%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Sittingbourne | VCD Athletic | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 18 | 19 | 37 | 20 | 19 | 39 |
| Wins | 61% | 42% | 51% | 25% | 16% | 21% |
| Draws | 28% | 21% | 24% | 20% | 16% | 18% |
| Loses | 11% | 37% | 24% | 55% | 68% | 62% |
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VCD AthleticDDDWLLWDLLLLLLLWWLLWLLLDLLWDLDLLWLLLWLL
League goals
| Metric | Sittingbourne | VCD Athletic | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 37 | 28 | 65 | 27 | 25 | 52 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 22 | 25 | 47 | 39 | 52 | 91 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Sittingbourne | VCD Athletic | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 92% | 76% | 67% | 95% |
| 1.5 | 51% | 30% | 36% | 69% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 19% | 18% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 3% | 5% | 28% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 5% | 5% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Sittingbourne | VCD Athletic | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
Penalties
| Metric | Sittingbourne | VCD Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Sittingbourne | VCD Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 2 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 7 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-3 | 6-2 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 3-1 | 0-4 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Sittingbourne | VCD Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 70% | 30% |
| Att | 80% | 20% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 75% | 25% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 90% | 10% |
| Total | 74.2% | 25.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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