Sun, Jan 25 2026 • 21:30 •
Unidad Deportiva Chapultepec
Expected Goals
2.78 (league 1.51)
2.05 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 47.6% | 17.7% | 26.6% |
best score tips
2 - 2
6.5%
2 - 1
6.3%
3 - 2
6.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Ensenada | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Guerreros | 0 | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 2.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 3.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 2.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | |
| 4 | 2.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Guerreros | Ensenada |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 27% |
| Attack | 53% | 29% |
| Defense | 35% | 24% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 13 | 2.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
68%
FT probability
3.5+
48%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Guerreros | Ensenada | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 8 | 7 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 15 |
| Wins | 50% | 29% | 40% | 38% | 43% | 40% |
| Draws | 13% | 0% | 7% | 13% | 14% | 13% |
| Loses | 38% | 71% | 53% | 50% | 43% | 47% |
Form: Guerreros: LWLDLWLLWWLWWLL • Ensenada: LWWDWWLLWLLWDLL
League goals
| Metric | Guerreros | Ensenada | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 9 | 25 | 6 | 11 | 17 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 12 | 16 | 28 | 9 | 15 | 24 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Guerreros | Ensenada | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 73% | 93% | 67% | 60% |
| 1.5 | 53% | 40% | 33% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 27% | 13% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 13% | 0% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 13% | 0% | 7% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Guerreros | Ensenada | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Guerreros | Ensenada |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Guerreros | Ensenada |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-4 | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 4-5 | 5-0 | 0-3 | 7-2 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Guerreros | Ensenada |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 64% | 36% |
| Def | 54% | 46% |
| Poisson Distribution | 59% | 41% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 59.3% | 40.8% |
Advice: Combo Double chance : Guerreros or draw and +1.5 goals
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Guerreros = 2.78 (league 1.51), Ensenada = 2.05 (league 1.17)
| Ensenada | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Guerreros | 0 | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 2.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 3.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 2.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | |
| 4 | 2.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 47.6% · Draw 17.7% · Away win 26.6%
vtt 1 , vtd1