Tue, Feb 17 2026 • 02:00 • Estadio Francisco Zarco
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.04 (league 1.53) 1.22 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
54.5% 21.3% 22.3%
best score tips
2 - 1
9.7%
1 - 1
9.5%
2 - 0
8.0%
Score & goals probability table
Leones Negros
0 1 2 3 4 5
Durango 0 3.8% 4.7% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
1 7.8% 9.5% 5.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
2 8.0% 9.7% 6.0% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
3 5.4% 6.6% 4.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
4 2.8% 3.4% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
5 1.1% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDurangoLeones Negros
Played55
Form80%60%
Attack42%37%
Defense89%84%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.67 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.43 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

86%
FT probability

2.5+

61%
FT probability

3.5+

43%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Durango Leones Negros
HATHAT
Played810189918
Wins63%90%78%67%44%56%
Draws13%0%6%11%11%11%
Loses25%10%17%22%44%33%

Form: Durango: WWLWWWLWWWWDWWWWLW • Leones Negros: DLDWWLWWLWWWLLWLWW

League goals

Metric Durango Leones Negros
HATHAT
GF total193049141327
GF avg2.43.02.71.61.41.5
GA total851371219
GA avg1.00.50.70.81.31.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDurangoLeones Negros
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.589%56%67%72%
1.572%11%50%22%
2.544%6%22%6%
3.533%0%6%6%
4.528%0%6%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDurangoLeones Negros
HATHAT
Clean sheets268325
Failed to score112246

Penalties

MetricDurangoLeones Negros
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricDurangoLeones Negros
Wins43
Draws11
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-01-63-00-2
Biggest losses1-31-00-22-1
Goals For5635
Goals Against3224

Model comparison

MetricDurangoLeones Negros
Form57%43%
Att53%47%
Def60%40%
Poisson Distribution64%36%
H2h93%7%
Goals73%27%
Total66.7%33.3%

Advice: Double chance : Durango or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.42 @ Betano
Draw5.00 @ 10Bet
Away11.30 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.75 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.20 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.18 @ Marathonbet
No1.95 @ Betano
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Durango = 2.04 (league 1.53), Leones Negros = 1.22 (league 1.14)

Leones Negros
0 1 2 3 4 5
Durango 0 3.8% 4.7% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
1 7.8% 9.5% 5.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
2 8.0% 9.7% 6.0% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
3 5.4% 6.6% 4.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
4 2.8% 3.4% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
5 1.1% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 54.5% · Draw 21.3% · Away win 22.3%

vtt 7 , vtd1