Sat, Sep 27 2025 • 15:00 • Neftçi Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.61 (league 1.23) 0.94 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
23.0% 35.3% 41.7%
best score tips
0 - 0
21.2%
0 - 1
19.9%
1 - 0
13.0%
Score & goals probability table
Karvan
0 1 2 3 4 5
Neftchi Baku 0 21.2% 19.9% 9.3% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1%
1 13.0% 12.2% 5.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
2 4.0% 3.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNeftchi BakuKarvan
Played55
Form40%27%
Attack23%31%
Defense85%15%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.64 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.411 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

64%
FT probability

2.5+

45%
FT probability

3.5+

32%
FT probability

BTTS

56%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Neftchi Baku Karvan
HATHAT
Played325325
Wins0%50%20%0%50%20%
Draws67%50%60%33%0%20%
Loses33%0%20%67%50%60%

Form: Neftchi Baku: DDLDW • Karvan: DWLLL

League goals

Metric Neftchi Baku Karvan
HATHAT
GF total123134
GF avg0.31.00.60.31.50.8
GA total2026511
GA avg0.70.00.42.02.52.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNeftchi BakuKarvan
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.540%40%40%100%
1.520%0%20%80%
2.50%0%20%40%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNeftchi BakuKarvan
HATHAT
Clean sheets123000
Failed to score213213

Penalties

MetricNeftchi BakuKarvan
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricNeftchi BakuKarvan
Wins01
Draws21
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—0-2—2-3
Biggest losses0-1—0-33-0
Goals For1213
Goals Against1033

Model comparison

MetricNeftchi BakuKarvan
Form60%40%
Att43%57%
Def85%15%
Poisson Distribution45%55%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total58.3%41.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Neftchi Baku or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.22 @ Bet365
Draw6.05 @ Pinnacle
Away14.48 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.65 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.23 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.43 @ 188Bet
No1.61 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Neftchi Baku = 0.61 (league 1.23), Karvan = 0.94 (league 1.12)

Karvan
0 1 2 3 4 5
Neftchi Baku 0 21.2% 19.9% 9.3% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1%
1 13.0% 12.2% 5.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
2 4.0% 3.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 23.0% · Draw 35.3% · Away win 41.7%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1