Sun, Nov 23 2025 • 13:30 • Neftci Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.84 (league 1.24) 0.82 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
33.2% 34.5% 32.2%
best score tips
0 - 0
18.9%
1 - 0
15.9%
0 - 1
15.6%
Score & goals probability table
Mil-Muğan
0 1 2 3 4 5
Neftchi Baku 0 18.9% 15.6% 6.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
1 15.9% 13.1% 5.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
2 6.7% 5.5% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNeftchi BakuMil-Muğan
Played55
Form53%27%
Attack79%36%
Defense50%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.25 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.47 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

57%
FT probability

2.5+

40%
FT probability

3.5+

29%
FT probability

BTTS

51%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Neftchi Baku Mil-Muğan
HATHAT
Played65115611
Wins17%40%27%20%50%36%
Draws67%40%55%60%0%27%
Loses17%20%18%20%50%36%

Form: Neftchi Baku: DDLDWDDDWWL • Mil-Muğan: LDWWWDLDWLL

League goals

Metric Neftchi Baku Mil-Muğan
HATHAT
GF total86144711
GF avg1.31.21.30.81.21.0
GA total549459
GA avg0.80.80.80.80.80.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNeftchi BakuMil-Muğan
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.555%55%55%55%
1.545%27%27%27%
2.59%0%18%0%
3.59%0%0%0%
4.59%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNeftchi BakuMil-Muğan
HATHAT
Clean sheets235235
Failed to score325235

Penalties

MetricNeftchi BakuMil-Muğan
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total20

Streaks

MetricNeftchi BakuMil-Muğan
Wins23
Draws31
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-10-21-00-3
Biggest losses0-12-00-12-0
Goals For5223
Goals Against2222

Model comparison

MetricNeftchi BakuMil-Muğan
Form67%33%
Att69%31%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution52%48%
H2h50%50%
Goals0%0%
Total57.6%42.4%

Advice: Double chance : Neftchi Baku or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.50 @ 1xBet
Draw4.50 @ 188Bet
Away7.46 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.97 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.97 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.21 @ 1xBet
No1.85 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Neftchi Baku = 0.84 (league 1.24), Mil-Muğan = 0.82 (league 1.17)

Mil-Muğan
0 1 2 3 4 5
Neftchi Baku 0 18.9% 15.6% 6.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
1 15.9% 13.1% 5.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1%
2 6.7% 5.5% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 33.2% · Draw 34.5% · Away win 32.2%

Vtot 3 , Vtod1