Sun, Feb 1 2026 • 12:00 • Liv Bona Dea Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.19 (league 1.21) 1.14 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
37.2% 28.1% 34.4%
best score tips
1 - 1
13.2%
1 - 0
11.6%
0 - 1
11.1%
Score & goals probability table
Neftchi Baku
0 1 2 3 4 5
Araz 0 9.7% 11.1% 6.3% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
1 11.6% 13.2% 7.5% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2%
2 6.9% 7.9% 4.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
3 2.8% 3.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricArazNeftchi Baku
Played55
Form47%40%
Attack44%22%
Defense50%72%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.64 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.85 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

73%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

63%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Araz Neftchi Baku
HATHAT
Played89179817
Wins63%22%41%11%38%24%
Draws25%44%35%67%38%53%
Loses13%33%24%22%25%24%

Form: Araz: DWWWLDWDDLWDLWLWD • Neftchi Baku: DDLDWDDDWWLLDLDWD

League goals

Metric Araz Neftchi Baku
HATHAT
GF total13142712820
GF avg1.61.61.61.31.01.2
GA total10172710717
GA avg1.31.91.61.10.91.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineArazNeftchi Baku
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.594%76%53%59%
1.565%41%47%35%
2.50%18%6%6%
3.50%12%6%0%
4.50%12%6%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricArazNeftchi Baku
HATHAT
Clean sheets314347
Failed to score101448

Penalties

MetricArazNeftchi Baku
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total24

Streaks

MetricArazNeftchi Baku
Wins32
Draws23
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-25-10-2
Biggest losses0-55-12-32-0
Goals For2252
Goals Against5532

Model comparison

MetricArazNeftchi Baku
Form54%46%
Att67%33%
Def36%64%
Poisson Distribution54%46%
H2h75%25%
Goals58%42%
Total57.3%42.7%

Advice: Double chance : Araz or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.90 @ Bet365
Draw3.30 @ Bet365
Away2.25 @ 10Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.26 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.62 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.97 @ 188Bet
No1.80 @ 10Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Araz = 1.19 (league 1.21), Neftchi Baku = 1.14 (league 1.14)

Neftchi Baku
0 1 2 3 4 5
Araz 0 9.7% 11.1% 6.3% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
1 11.6% 13.2% 7.5% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2%
2 6.9% 7.9% 4.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
3 2.8% 3.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 0.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 37.2% · Draw 28.1% · Away win 34.4%

vtt 1 , vtd1