Sat, Feb 14 2026 • 10:30 • Quba OIK stadionu
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.66 (league 1.21) 2.31 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
9.0% 16.5% 71.4%
best score tips
0 - 2
13.6%
0 - 1
11.8%
0 - 3
10.5%
Score & goals probability table
Qarabag
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mil-Muğan 0 5.1% 11.8% 13.6% 10.5% 6.1% 2.8%
1 3.4% 7.8% 9.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.9%
2 1.1% 2.6% 3.0% 2.3% 1.3% 0.6%
3 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMil-MuğanQarabag
Played55
Form27%60%
Attack50%60%
Defense40%40%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 16 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.26 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

71%
FT probability

2.5+

50%
FT probability

3.5+

35%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Mil-Muğan Qarabag
HATHAT
Played9101911819
Wins11%40%26%64%75%68%
Draws67%10%37%18%13%16%
Loses22%50%37%18%13%16%

Form: Mil-Muğan: LDWWWDLDWLLWLLDDDLD • Qarabag: LWDWWWWDWWWWDWLWLWW

League goals

Metric Mil-Muğan Qarabag
HATHAT
GF total71219161935
GF avg0.81.21.01.52.41.8
GA total1011215813
GA avg1.11.11.10.51.00.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMil-MuğanQarabag
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.553%63%84%53%
1.532%37%58%16%
2.516%11%16%0%
3.50%0%16%0%
4.50%0%11%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMil-MuğanQarabag
HATHAT
Clean sheets347729
Failed to score459303

Penalties

MetricMil-MuğanQarabag
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%6 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total06

Streaks

MetricMil-MuğanQarabag
Wins34
Draws31
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins1-00-35-10-5
Biggest losses0-32-00-22-1
Goals For2355
Goals Against3322

Model comparison

MetricMil-MuğanQarabag
Form31%69%
Att45%55%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution23%77%
H2h0%100%
Goals0%100%
Total37.3%62.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Qarabag

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home12.11 @ Pinnacle
Draw5.43 @ Pinnacle
Away1.33 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.73 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.15 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.22 @ Superbet
No1.75 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Mil-Muğan = 0.66 (league 1.21), Qarabag = 2.31 (league 1.14)

Qarabag
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mil-Muğan 0 5.1% 11.8% 13.6% 10.5% 6.1% 2.8%
1 3.4% 7.8% 9.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.9%
2 1.1% 2.6% 3.0% 2.3% 1.3% 0.6%
3 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 9.0% · Draw 16.5% · Away win 71.4%

vtt 1 , vtd1