Sat, Feb 28 2026 • 10:30 • Shamakhi City Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.73 (league 1.21) 2.10 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
11.8% 19.1% 67.1%
best score tips
0 - 2
13.0%
0 - 1
12.4%
1 - 2
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
Neftchi Baku
0 1 2 3 4 5
Keshla FC 0 5.9% 12.4% 13.0% 9.1% 4.8% 2.0%
1 4.3% 9.0% 9.5% 6.6% 3.5% 1.5%
2 1.6% 3.3% 3.5% 2.4% 1.3% 0.5%
3 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricKeshla FCNeftchi Baku
Played55
Form33%87%
Attack38%100%
Defense25%75%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.610 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.22 | 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

67%
FT probability

2.5+

47%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

60%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Keshla FC Neftchi Baku
HATHAT
Played101121101020
Wins30%27%29%20%50%35%
Draws20%45%33%60%30%45%
Loses50%27%38%20%20%20%

Form: Keshla FC: DLDWLDWLDLWDLWWLLWLDD • Neftchi Baku: DDLDWDDDWWLLDLDWDWWW

League goals

Metric Keshla FC Neftchi Baku
HATHAT
GF total111021131528
GF avg1.10.91.01.31.51.4
GA total1682410818
GA avg1.60.71.11.00.80.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineKeshla FCNeftchi Baku
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.571%57%60%55%
1.519%38%50%30%
2.510%10%15%5%
3.50%10%10%0%
4.50%0%5%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricKeshla FCNeftchi Baku
HATHAT
Clean sheets369459
Failed to score246448

Penalties

MetricKeshla FCNeftchi Baku
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total34

Streaks

MetricKeshla FCNeftchi Baku
Wins22
Draws13
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-35-10-4
Biggest losses0-42-02-32-0
Goals For3354
Goals Against4232

Model comparison

MetricKeshla FCNeftchi Baku
Form28%72%
Att23%77%
Def25%75%
Poisson Distribution28%72%
H2h25%75%
Goals33%67%
Total27.0%73.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Neftchi Baku

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.95 @ 10Bet
Draw3.32 @ 1xBet
Away2.03 @ SBO

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.55 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.53 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.38 @ 1xBet
No1.70 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Keshla FC = 0.73 (league 1.21), Neftchi Baku = 2.10 (league 1.14)

Neftchi Baku
0 1 2 3 4 5
Keshla FC 0 5.9% 12.4% 13.0% 9.1% 4.8% 2.0%
1 4.3% 9.0% 9.5% 6.6% 3.5% 1.5%
2 1.6% 3.3% 3.5% 2.4% 1.3% 0.5%
3 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 11.8% · Draw 19.1% · Away win 67.1%

vtt 2 , vtd1