Neftchi Baku vs Mil-Muğan

Premyer Liqa — Azerbaijan

Fri, Mar 20 2026 • 15:15 • Palms Sports Arena

Not Started

Neftchi Baku

—

Mil-Muğan

Expected Goals

0.88 (league 1.23) 0.86 (league 1.17)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
33.7%	33.7%	32.6%

best score tips

0 - 0

17.7%

1 - 0

15.5%

0 - 1

15.2%

Score & goals probability table

		Mil-Muğan
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Neftchi Baku	0	17.7%	15.2%	6.5%	1.8%	0.4%	0.1%
	1	15.5%	13.3%	5.7%	1.6%	0.3%	0.1%
	2	6.8%	5.8%	2.5%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%
	3	2.0%	1.7%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
	4	0.4%	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	5	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Neftchi Baku	Mil-Muğan
Played	5	5
Form	67%	20%
Attack	56%	0%
Defense	69%	63%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	9 \| 1.8	0 \| 0
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	5 \| 1	6 \| 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.10

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.90

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

60%

FT probability

2.5+

42%

FT probability

3.5+

30%

FT probability

BTTS

52%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Neftchi Baku			Mil-Muğan
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	11	12	23	12	12	24
Wins	18%	50%	35%	8%	33%	21%
Draws	55%	33%	43%	58%	25%	42%
Loses	27%	17%	22%	33%	42%	38%

Form: Neftchi Baku: DDLDWDDDWWLLDLDWDWWWDLW • Mil-Muğan: LDWWWDLDWLLWLLDDDLDLDDDL

League goals

Metric	Neftchi Baku			Mil-Muğan
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	13	20	33	7	12	19
GF avg	1.2	1.7	1.4	0.6	1.0	0.8
GA total	11	11	22	16	11	27
GA avg	1.0	0.9	1.0	1.3	0.9	1.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Neftchi Baku		Mil-Muğan
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	61%	61%	42%	58%
1.5	52%	30%	25%	33%
2.5	17%	4%	13%	13%
3.5	9%	0%	0%	4%
4.5	4%	0%	0%	4%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Neftchi Baku			Mil-Muğan
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	4	5	9	4	6	10
Failed to score	5	4	9	7	7	14

Penalties

Metric	Neftchi Baku	Mil-Muğan
Scored (total \| %)	5 \| 100.00%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	5	0

Streaks

Metric	Neftchi Baku	Mil-Muğan
Wins	3	3
Draws	3	3
Losses	2	2

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	5-1	0-4	1-0	0-3
Biggest losses	2-3	2-0	0-5	2-0
Goals For	5	4	2	3
Goals Against	3	2	5	3

Model comparison

Metric	Neftchi Baku	Mil-Muğan
Form	77%	23%
Att	100%	0%
Def	55%	45%
Poisson Distribution	53%	47%
H2h	20%	80%
Goals	40%	60%
Total	49.0%	51.0%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Neftchi Baku or draw and -3.5 goals

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.63 @ 1xBet

Draw3.50 @ 1xBet

Away5.23 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.05 @ Unibet

Under 2.51.57 @ Unibet

Bookmaker: Select to view full market tables.

Unibet Updated: 2026-03-18T00:31:57+00:00

Bet ID 1 — Match Winner

Selection	Odds
Home	1.58
Draw	3.30
Away	4.90

Bet ID 5 — Goals Over/Under

Selection	Odds
Over 1.5	1.33
Under 1.5	2.70
Over 2.5	2.05
Under 2.5	1.57
Over 3.5	3.55
Under 3.5	1.19

Bet ID 12 — Double Chance

Selection	Odds
Home/Draw	1.10
Home/Away	1.21
Draw/Away	1.98

Bet ID 13 — First Half Winner

Selection	Odds
Home	2.18
Draw	2.10
Away	5.40

Selection	Odds
Home	1.63
Draw	3.50
Away	5.23

Selection	Odds
Home +0	1.22
Away +0	3.70

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League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Venue page • Neftchi Baku vs Mil-Muğan

Expected goals (λ): Neftchi Baku = 0.88 (league 1.23), Mil-Muğan = 0.86 (league 1.17)

		Mil-Muğan
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Neftchi Baku	0	17.7%	15.2%	6.5%	1.8%	0.4%	0.1%
	1	15.5%	13.3%	5.7%	1.6%	0.3%	0.1%
	2	6.8%	5.8%	2.5%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%
	3	2.0%	1.7%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
	4	0.4%	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
	5	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 33.7% · Draw 33.7% · Away win 32.6%

vtt 1 , vtd1

Metric	Neftchi Baku	Mil-Muğan
Scored (total \| %)	5 \| 100.00%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	5	0