Sun, Apr 5 2026 • 14:00 • Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium
Not Started
Expected Goals
0.99 (league 1.27) 2.49 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
13.1% 16.9% 65.9%
best score tips
0 - 2
9.5%
1 - 2
9.5%
0 - 3
7.9%
Score & goals probability table
Neftchi Baku
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sumqayıt 0 3.1% 7.6% 9.5% 7.9% 4.9% 2.4%
1 3.0% 7.6% 9.5% 7.8% 4.9% 2.4%
2 1.5% 3.8% 4.7% 3.9% 2.4% 1.2%
3 0.5% 1.3% 1.6% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4%
4 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSumqayıtNeftchi Baku
Played55
Form13%67%
Attack12%82%
Defense53%71%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 0.414 | 2.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.65 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

77%
FT probability

2.5+

54%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Sumqayıt Neftchi Baku
HATHAT
Played121325121224
Wins33%31%32%25%50%38%
Draws17%23%20%50%33%42%
Loses50%46%48%25%17%21%

Form: Sumqayıt: WWDLLDLWLWWLWWDLLWLLDLDLL • Neftchi Baku: DDLDWDDDWWLLDLDWDWWWDLWW

League goals

Metric Sumqayıt Neftchi Baku
HATHAT
GF total171330192039
GF avg1.41.01.21.61.71.6
GA total201636111122
GA avg1.71.21.40.90.90.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSumqayıtNeftchi Baku
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.568%76%63%58%
1.536%40%54%29%
2.512%24%21%4%
3.54%4%13%0%
4.50%0%8%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSumqayıtNeftchi Baku
HATHAT
Clean sheets3365510
Failed to score448549

Penalties

MetricSumqayıtNeftchi Baku
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total35

Streaks

MetricSumqayıtNeftchi Baku
Wins23
Draws13
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-10-26-00-4
Biggest losses0-33-02-32-0
Goals For4264
Goals Against4332

Model comparison

MetricSumqayıtNeftchi Baku
Form17%83%
Att13%88%
Def38%62%
Poisson Distribution32%68%
H2h38%62%
Goals46%54%
Total30.7%69.5%

Advice: Winner : Neftchi Baku

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.92 @ 1xBet
Draw3.40 @ Bet365
Away1.95 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.20 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.70 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.00 @ Betfair
No1.78 @ 1xBet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Sumqayıt = 0.99 (league 1.27), Neftchi Baku = 2.49 (league 1.16)

Neftchi Baku
0 1 2 3 4 5
Sumqayıt 0 3.1% 7.6% 9.5% 7.9% 4.9% 2.4%
1 3.0% 7.6% 9.5% 7.8% 4.9% 2.4%
2 1.5% 3.8% 4.7% 3.9% 2.4% 1.2%
3 0.5% 1.3% 1.6% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4%
4 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 13.1% · Draw 16.9% · Away win 65.9%

vtt 1 , vtd1