USL Super League
— USA
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 23:30 •
Riverfront Stadium
Expected Goals
0.70 (league 1.03)
2.27 (league 1.03)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 9.9% | 17.1% | 70.2% |
best score tips
0 - 2
13.2%
0 - 1
11.6%
0 - 3
10.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Carolina Ascent W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Tampa Bay Sun W | 0 | 5.1% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 10.0% | 5.7% | 2.6% |
| 1 | 3.6% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 1.8% | |
| 2 | 1.3% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Carolina Ascent W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 48 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Tampa Bay Sun W +4.5, Carolina Ascent W +64.2.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Tampa Bay Sun W
vs
Carolina Ascent W
Elo gapCarolina Ascent W +48
Home / draw / away32% / 24% / 44%
Expected home share43%
Combined Elo2997.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2997.9
Elo home share
43%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Tampa Bay Sun W | Carolina Ascent W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1457.3 | 1540.6 |
| Form Elo | 1446.6 | 1557 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1473.4 | 1543.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1470.9 | 1500.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1435 | 1566 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +4.5 | +64.2 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Tampa Bay Sun W last-5 Elo change: +4.5; Carolina Ascent W last-5 Elo change: +64.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Tampa Bay Sun W | Carolina Ascent W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 87% |
| Attack | 38% | 54% |
| Defense | 31% | 85% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
69%
FT probability
2.5+
49%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Tampa Bay Sun W | Carolina Ascent W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 12 | 24 | 13 | 12 | 25 |
| Wins | 8% | 25% | 17% | 38% | 58% | 48% |
| Draws | 42% | 33% | 38% | 23% | 25% | 24% |
| Loses | 50% | 42% | 46% | 38% | 17% | 28% |
Tampa Bay Sun WLLDLDDDDWDDLLLDDWLLWWLLL
Carolina Ascent WDDDLLWDWWLWWLDLLLWWWWDWWW
League goals
| Metric | Tampa Bay Sun W | Carolina Ascent W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 11 | 13 | 24 | 15 | 16 | 31 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 21 | 19 | 40 | 15 | 10 | 25 |
| GA avg | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Tampa Bay Sun W | Carolina Ascent W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 83% | 76% | 64% |
| 1.5 | 29% | 54% | 40% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 4% | 25% | 8% | 4% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Tampa Bay Sun W | Carolina Ascent W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Tampa Bay Sun W | Carolina Ascent W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Tampa Bay Sun W | Carolina Ascent W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 4 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-2 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-0 | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Tampa Bay Sun W | Carolina Ascent W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 32% | 68% |
| Att | 42% | 58% |
| Def | 18% | 82% |
| Poisson Distribution | 26% | 74% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 45% | 55% |
| Total | 33.5% | 66.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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