Sun, Dec 21 2025 • 14:00 • Bet365 Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.31 (league 2.17) 2.03 (league 1.48)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
42.4% 19.6% 33.2%
best score tips
2 - 2
7.2%
2 - 1
7.1%
1 - 2
6.2%
Score & goals probability table
Derby County U21
0 1 2 3 4 5
Stoke City U21 0 1.3% 2.7% 2.7% 1.8% 0.9% 0.4%
1 3.0% 6.1% 6.2% 4.2% 2.1% 0.9%
2 3.5% 7.1% 7.2% 4.8% 2.5% 1.0%
3 2.7% 5.4% 5.5% 3.7% 1.9% 0.8%
4 1.5% 3.1% 3.2% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4%
5 0.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricStoke City U21Derby County U21
Played54
Form33%33%
Attack75%100%
Defense8%25%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.813 | 3.3
Goals Against (tot | avg)11 | 2.29 | 2.3

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

5.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

85%
FT probability

3.5+

63%
FT probability

BTTS

98%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Stoke City U21 Derby County U21
HATHAT
Played235224
Wins50%0%20%50%0%25%
Draws0%67%40%50%0%25%
Loses50%33%40%0%100%50%

Form: Stoke City U21: DLDWL • Derby County U21: LWDL

League goals

Metric Stoke City U21 Derby County U21
HATHAT
GF total45910313
GF avg2.01.71.85.01.53.3
GA total4711459
GA avg2.02.32.22.02.52.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineStoke City U21Derby County U21
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%100%100%100%
1.560%80%75%100%
2.520%20%25%25%
3.50%20%25%0%
4.50%0%25%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricStoke City U21Derby County U21
HATHAT
Clean sheets000000
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricStoke City U21Derby County U21
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricStoke City U21Derby County U21
Wins11
Draws11
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-2—8-2—
Biggest losses1-24-2—3-2
Goals For3282
Goals Against2423

Model comparison

MetricStoke City U21Derby County U21
Form56%44%
Att41%59%
Def45%55%
Poisson Distribution57%43%
H2h93%7%
Goals73%27%
Total60.8%39.2%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Stoke City U21 or draw and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.97 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.57 @ Pinnacle
Away3.20 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.39 @ 188Bet
No3.30 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.33 @ Bet365
Under 2.53.30 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Stoke City U21 = 2.31 (league 2.17), Derby County U21 = 2.03 (league 1.48)

Derby County U21
0 1 2 3 4 5
Stoke City U21 0 1.3% 2.7% 2.7% 1.8% 0.9% 0.4%
1 3.0% 6.1% 6.2% 4.2% 2.1% 0.9%
2 3.5% 7.1% 7.2% 4.8% 2.5% 1.0%
3 2.7% 5.4% 5.5% 3.7% 1.9% 0.8%
4 1.5% 3.1% 3.2% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4%
5 0.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 42.4% · Draw 19.6% · Away win 33.2%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1