Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Chillax Arena
Expected Goals
1.20 (league 1.62)
1.71 (league 1.41)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 26.8% | 23.8% | 48.4% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.2%
1 - 2
9.6%
0 - 1
9.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Sparta Petegem | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| KRC Gent | 0 | 5.4% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 6.5% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 3.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Sparta Petegem carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 21 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: KRC Gent -26.9, Sparta Petegem +8.2.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
KRC Gent
vs
Sparta Petegem
Elo gapSparta Petegem +21
Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo2993.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2993.2
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | KRC Gent | Sparta Petegem |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1468.6 | 1524.6 |
| Form Elo | 1451.7 | 1531.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1497 | 1513 |
| Attack Elo | 1515.6 | 1561.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1359.5 | 1449.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -26.9 | +8.2 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. KRC Gent last-5 Elo change: -26.9; Sparta Petegem last-5 Elo change: +8.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | KRC Gent | Sparta Petegem |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 60% |
| Attack | 37% | 58% |
| Defense | 21% | 47% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 15 | 3 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
92%
FT probability
2.5+
65%
FT probability
3.5+
46%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | KRC Gent | Sparta Petegem | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 43% | 13% | 28% | 40% | 43% | 41% |
| Draws | 7% | 40% | 24% | 20% | 14% | 17% |
| Loses | 50% | 47% | 48% | 40% | 43% | 41% |
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Sparta PetegemWLLDLLLWDLDLLWWWDWWWLLWDLWWLW
League goals
| Metric | KRC Gent | Sparta Petegem | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 21 | 23 | 44 | 27 | 16 | 43 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 31 | 35 | 66 | 26 | 18 | 44 |
| GA avg | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | KRC Gent | Sparta Petegem | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 76% | 86% | 69% | 69% |
| 1.5 | 45% | 59% | 45% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 21% | 48% | 21% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 28% | 10% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 7% | 3% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | KRC Gent | Sparta Petegem | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | KRC Gent | Sparta Petegem |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | KRC Gent | Sparta Petegem |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 2-4 | 5-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-5 | 5-0 | 1-5 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | KRC Gent | Sparta Petegem |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 25% | 75% |
| Att | 39% | 61% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 40% | 60% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 37% | 63% |
| Total | 36.8% | 63.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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