Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Gemeentelijk Sportcentrum
Expected Goals
2.38 (league 1.77)
0.70 (league 1.46)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 71.4% | 16.1% | 9.1% |
best score tips
2 - 0
13.1%
1 - 0
11.0%
3 - 0
10.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Bocholt | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Heist | 0 | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 11.0% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.1% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 10.4% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 6.2% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Heist carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 144 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Heist -18.1, Bocholt -42.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Heist
vs
Bocholt
Elo gapHeist +144
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share70%
Combined Elo3047.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3047.7
Elo home share
70%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Heist | Bocholt |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1578.5 | 1469.2 |
| Form Elo | 1574.2 | 1425 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1547.9 | 1524.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1788.7 | 1582.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1509.3 | 1416.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -18.1 | -42.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Heist last-5 Elo change: -18.1; Bocholt last-5 Elo change: -42.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Heist | Bocholt |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 20% |
| Attack | 48% | 38% |
| Defense | 57% | 38% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 13 | 2.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
69%
FT probability
3.5+
49%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Heist | Bocholt | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 71% | 60% | 66% | 40% | 57% | 48% |
| Draws | 21% | 13% | 17% | 7% | 14% | 10% |
| Loses | 7% | 27% | 17% | 53% | 29% | 41% |
HeistLWDWWLDWLWWWWWWWWWWDWWLWDWDLW
BocholtWDWLWWWLWWWLWWWDWWLLDLLLLLLLW
League goals
| Metric | Heist | Bocholt | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 42 | 40 | 82 | 25 | 24 | 49 |
| GF avg | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 8 | 20 | 28 | 24 | 20 | 44 |
| GA avg | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Heist | Bocholt | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 69% | 79% | 66% |
| 1.5 | 62% | 17% | 55% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 3% | 24% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 45% | 3% | 7% | 10% |
| 4.5 | 31% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Heist | Bocholt | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Heist | Bocholt |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Heist | Bocholt |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 10 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 7 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-6 | 5-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 5-0 | 2-4 | 6-2 |
| Goals For | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Heist | Bocholt |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 73% | 27% |
| Att | 56% | 44% |
| Def | 59% | 41% |
| Poisson Distribution | 79% | 21% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 100% | 0% |
| Total | 66.8% | 33.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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