Fri, Nov 28 2025 • 16:30 •
Thani bin Jassim Stadium
Expected Goals
2.05 (league 1.68)
1.39 (league 1.87)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 50.9% | 21.3% | 25.6% |
best score tips
2 - 1
9.4%
1 - 1
9.1%
2 - 0
6.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Lusail City | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Al-Gharafa | 0 | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 6.6% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 6.7% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 4.6% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Al-Gharafa | Lusail City |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 0% | 27% |
| Attack | 13% | 60% |
| Defense | 27% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 15 | 3 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
5.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
6.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
83%
FT probability
3.5+
59%
FT probability
BTTS
82%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Al-Gharafa | Lusail City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 17% |
| Draws | 25% | 0% | 17% | 0% | 25% | 17% |
| Loses | 75% | 100% | 83% | 50% | 75% | 67% |
Form: Al-Gharafa: DLLLLL • Lusail City: LWLDLL
League goals
| Metric | Al-Gharafa | Lusail City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 8 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 17 | 20 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 4.3 | 3.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Al-Gharafa | Lusail City | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 33% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 50% | 33% | 67% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 50% | 17% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 17% | 17% | 50% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 17% | 0% | 50% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Al-Gharafa | Lusail City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Al-Gharafa | Lusail City |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Al-Gharafa | Lusail City |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | 4-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 5-2 | 1-2 | 6-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Al-Gharafa | Lusail City |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 0% | 100% |
| Att | 18% | 82% |
| Def | 58% | 42% |
| Poisson Distribution | 58% | 42% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 44.7% | 55.3% |
Advice: Double chance : draw or Lusail City
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Al-Gharafa = 2.05 (league 1.68), Lusail City = 1.39 (league 1.87)
| Lusail City | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Al-Gharafa | 0 | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 6.6% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 6.7% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 4.6% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 50.9% · Draw 21.3% · Away win 25.6%
Vtot 1 , Vtod1