Tue, Oct 21 2025 • 19:00 • Estadio de la Ceramica
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.27 (league 1.76) 3.02 (league 1.32)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
26.3% 16.9% 45.6%
best score tips
2 - 3
6.0%
2 - 2
5.9%
1 - 3
5.3%
Score & goals probability table
Manchester City
0 1 2 3 4 5
Villarreal 0 0.5% 1.5% 2.3% 2.3% 1.7% 1.1%
1 1.1% 3.4% 5.2% 5.3% 4.0% 2.4%
2 1.3% 3.9% 5.9% 6.0% 4.5% 2.7%
3 1.0% 3.0% 4.5% 4.5% 3.4% 2.1%
4 0.6% 1.7% 2.5% 2.6% 1.9% 1.2%
5 0.3% 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricVillarrealManchester City
Played22
Form17%67%
Attack13%25%
Defense81%88%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 14 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 1.52 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

68%
FT probability

3.5+

48%
FT probability

BTTS

84%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Villarreal Manchester City
HATHAT
Played112112
Wins0%0%0%100%0%50%
Draws100%0%50%0%100%50%
Loses0%100%50%0%0%0%

Form: Villarreal: LD • Manchester City: WD

League goals

Metric Villarreal Manchester City
HATHAT
GF total202224
GF avg2.00.01.02.02.02.0
GA total213022
GA avg2.01.01.50.02.01.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineVillarrealManchester City
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.550%100%100%50%
1.550%50%100%50%
2.50%0%0%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricVillarrealManchester City
HATHAT
Clean sheets000101
Failed to score011000

Penalties

MetricVillarrealManchester City
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricVillarrealManchester City
Wins01
Draws00
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins——2-0—
Biggest losses—1-0——
Goals For2022
Goals Against2102

Model comparison

MetricVillarrealManchester City
Form20%80%
Att33%67%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution39%61%
H2h0%100%
Goals17%83%
Total29.8%70.2%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Manchester City and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home4.81 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.18 @ 1xBet
Away1.78 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.68 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.40 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.65 @ Pinnacle
No2.38 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Villarreal = 2.27 (league 1.76), Manchester City = 3.02 (league 1.32)

Manchester City
0 1 2 3 4 5
Villarreal 0 0.5% 1.5% 2.3% 2.3% 1.7% 1.1%
1 1.1% 3.4% 5.2% 5.3% 4.0% 2.4%
2 1.3% 3.9% 5.9% 6.0% 4.5% 2.7%
3 1.0% 3.0% 4.5% 4.5% 3.4% 2.1%
4 0.6% 1.7% 2.5% 2.6% 1.9% 1.2%
5 0.3% 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 26.3% · Draw 16.9% · Away win 45.6%

Vtot 9 , Vtod1