Wed, Nov 5 2025 • 17:45 • Tofiq Bahramov Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
4.29 (league 1.75) 0.77 (league 1.30)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
66.0% 5.2% 2.5%
best score tips
4 - 0
9.0%
3 - 0
8.3%
5 - 0
7.7%
Score & goals probability table
Chelsea
0 1 2 3 4 5
Qarabag 0 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 2.7% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
2 5.8% 4.5% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
3 8.3% 6.4% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
4 9.0% 6.9% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
5 7.7% 5.9% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricQarabagChelsea
Played53
Form60%67%
Attack92%58%
Defense25%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.27 | 2.3
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.84 | 1.3

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

73%
FT probability

3.5+

52%
FT probability

BTTS

82%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Qarabag Chelsea
HATHAT
Played459213
Wins75%80%78%100%0%67%
Draws0%0%0%0%0%0%
Loses25%20%22%0%100%33%

Form: Qarabag: WWWWWLWWL • Chelsea: LWW

League goals

Metric Qarabag Chelsea
HATHAT
GF total101121617
GF avg2.52.22.33.01.02.3
GA total4610134
GA avg1.01.21.10.53.01.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineQarabagChelsea
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%56%100%67%
1.567%33%33%33%
2.544%22%33%33%
3.511%0%33%0%
4.511%0%33%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricQarabagChelsea
HATHAT
Clean sheets224101
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricQarabagChelsea
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total22

Streaks

MetricQarabagChelsea
Wins50
Draws00
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-10-35-1—
Biggest losses2-33-1—3-1
Goals For5351
Goals Against3313

Model comparison

MetricQarabagChelsea
Form60%40%
Att61%39%
Def31%69%
Poisson Distribution83%17%
H2h0%100%
Goals0%100%
Total58.8%41.3%

Advice: Combo Winner : Qarabag and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home9.50 @ Betfair
Draw5.81 @ Pinnacle
Away1.37 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.52 @ Betano
Under 2.52.70 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.87 @ Pinnacle
No2.03 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Qarabag = 4.29 (league 1.75), Chelsea = 0.77 (league 1.30)

Chelsea
0 1 2 3 4 5
Qarabag 0 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 2.7% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
2 5.8% 4.5% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
3 8.3% 6.4% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
4 9.0% 6.9% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
5 7.7% 5.9% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 66.0% · Draw 5.2% · Away win 2.5%

Vtot 43 , Vtod1