Tue, Nov 25 2025 • 20:00 • Orange Vélodrome
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.57 (league 1.76) 1.51 (league 1.32)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
13.8% 25.8% 60.0%
best score tips
0 - 1
18.9%
0 - 2
14.3%
0 - 0
12.5%
Score & goals probability table
Newcastle
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marseille 0 12.5% 18.9% 14.3% 7.2% 2.7% 0.8%
1 7.1% 10.7% 8.1% 4.1% 1.5% 0.5%
2 2.0% 3.0% 2.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
3 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMarseilleNewcastle
Played44
Form25%75%
Attack60%100%
Defense50%80%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.510 | 2.5
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 1.32 | 0.5

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

6.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

88%
FT probability

2.5+

62%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

60%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Marseille Newcastle
HATHAT
Played224314
Wins50%0%25%67%100%75%
Draws0%0%0%0%0%0%
Loses50%100%75%33%0%25%

Form: Marseille: LWLL • Newcastle: LWWW

League goals

Metric Marseille Newcastle
HATHAT
GF total4266410
GF avg2.01.01.52.04.02.5
GA total145202
GA avg0.52.01.30.70.00.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMarseilleNewcastle
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%75%100%25%
1.525%50%75%25%
2.525%0%50%0%
3.525%0%25%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMarseilleNewcastle
HATHAT
Clean sheets101213
Failed to score101000

Penalties

MetricMarseilleNewcastle
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricMarseilleNewcastle
Wins10
Draws00
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-0—3-00-4
Biggest losses0-12-11-2—
Goals For4134
Goals Against1220

Model comparison

MetricMarseilleNewcastle
Form25%75%
Att38%63%
Def29%71%
Poisson Distribution0%100%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total30.7%69.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Newcastle

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.06 @ 1xBet
Draw3.50 @ 188Bet
Away2.48 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.85 @ 188Bet
Under 2.52.14 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.64 @ Pinnacle
No2.38 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Marseille = 0.57 (league 1.76), Newcastle = 1.51 (league 1.32)

Newcastle
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marseille 0 12.5% 18.9% 14.3% 7.2% 2.7% 0.8%
1 7.1% 10.7% 8.1% 4.1% 1.5% 0.5%
2 2.0% 3.0% 2.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
3 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 13.8% · Draw 25.8% · Away win 60.0%

Vtot 45 , Vtod1