Wed, Dec 10 2025 • 17:45 • Tofiq Bahramov Stadium
Match Finished
2 - 4
Expected Goals
6.18 (league 1.75) 0.45 (league 1.34)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
40.6% 0.8% 0.2%
best score tips
5 - 0
9.9%
4 - 0
8.0%
3 - 0
5.2%
Score & goals probability table
Ajax
0 1 2 3 4 5
Qarabag 0 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 5.2% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 8.0% 3.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 9.9% 4.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricQarabagAjax
Played55
Form47%0%
Attack47%6%
Defense47%6%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.61 | 0.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.816 | 3.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

77%
FT probability

3.5+

55%
FT probability

BTTS

74%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Qarabag Ajax
HATHAT
Played5611325
Wins60%67%64%0%0%0%
Draws20%0%9%0%0%0%
Loses20%33%27%100%100%100%

Form: Qarabag: WWWWWLWWLDL • Ajax: LLLLL

League goals

Metric Qarabag Ajax
HATHAT
GF total121123011
GF avg2.41.82.10.00.50.2
GA total68147916
GA avg1.21.31.32.34.53.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineQarabagAjax
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.591%64%20%100%
1.564%45%0%100%
2.536%18%0%60%
3.59%0%0%40%
4.59%0%0%20%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricQarabagAjax
HATHAT
Clean sheets224000
Failed to score011314

Penalties

MetricQarabagAjax
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total31

Streaks

MetricQarabagAjax
Wins50
Draws10
Losses15

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-10-3——
Biggest losses2-33-10-35-1
Goals For5301
Goals Against3335

Model comparison

MetricQarabagAjax
Form100%0%
Att89%11%
Def64%36%
Poisson Distribution92%8%
H2h0%100%
Goals0%100%
Total81.7%18.3%

Advice: Combo Winner : Qarabag and +1.5 goals

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.25 @ 1xBet
Draw3.90 @ Bet365
Away3.25 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.66 @ 1xBet
Under 2.52.41 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.56 @ 188Bet
No2.59 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Qarabag = 6.18 (league 1.75), Ajax = 0.45 (league 1.34)

Ajax
0 1 2 3 4 5
Qarabag 0 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 5.2% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 8.0% 3.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 9.9% 4.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 40.6% · Draw 0.8% · Away win 0.2%

Vtot 21 , Vtod1