Tue, Jan 20 2026 • 20:00 • Estadio de la Ceramica
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.70 (league 1.78) 2.86 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
33.4% 17.1% 37.2%
best score tips
2 - 2
5.8%
2 - 3
5.5%
3 - 2
5.2%
Score & goals probability table
Ajax
0 1 2 3 4 5
Villarreal 0 0.4% 1.1% 1.6% 1.5% 1.1% 0.6%
1 1.0% 3.0% 4.3% 4.1% 2.9% 1.7%
2 1.4% 4.0% 5.8% 5.5% 3.9% 2.2%
3 1.3% 3.6% 5.2% 4.9% 3.5% 2.0%
4 0.9% 2.4% 3.5% 3.3% 2.4% 1.4%
5 0.5% 1.3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.3% 0.7%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricVillarrealAjax
Played55
Form7%20%
Attack27%33%
Defense20%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.85 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)12 | 2.416 | 3.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

5.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

6.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

79%
FT probability

3.5+

56%
FT probability

BTTS

76%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Villarreal Ajax
HATHAT
Played336336
Wins0%0%0%0%33%17%
Draws33%0%17%0%0%0%
Loses67%100%83%100%67%83%

Form: Villarreal: LDLLLL • Ajax: LLLLLW

League goals

Metric Villarreal Ajax
HATHAT
GF total404055
GF avg1.30.00.70.01.70.8
GA total761371118
GA avg2.32.02.22.33.73.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineVillarrealAjax
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.533%100%33%100%
1.533%67%17%100%
2.50%33%17%50%
3.50%17%17%33%
4.50%0%0%17%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricVillarrealAjax
HATHAT
Clean sheets000000
Failed to score134314

Penalties

MetricVillarrealAjax
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricVillarrealAjax
Wins00
Draws10
Losses15

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins———2-4
Biggest losses0-24-00-35-1
Goals For2004
Goals Against3435

Model comparison

MetricVillarrealAjax
Form25%75%
Att44%56%
Def57%43%
Poisson Distribution47%53%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total43.3%56.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Ajax and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.37 @ 1xBet
Draw5.90 @ Betano
Away8.50 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.36 @ 10Bet
Under 2.53.40 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.61 @ Pinnacle
No2.48 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Villarreal = 2.70 (league 1.78), Ajax = 2.86 (league 1.37)

Ajax
0 1 2 3 4 5
Villarreal 0 0.4% 1.1% 1.6% 1.5% 1.1% 0.6%
1 1.0% 3.0% 4.3% 4.1% 2.9% 1.7%
2 1.4% 4.0% 5.8% 5.5% 3.9% 2.2%
3 1.3% 3.6% 5.2% 4.9% 3.5% 2.0%
4 0.9% 2.4% 3.5% 3.3% 2.4% 1.4%
5 0.5% 1.3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.3% 0.7%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 33.4% · Draw 17.1% · Away win 37.2%

vtt 5 , vtd1