Wed, Jan 21 2026 • 20:00 • Orange Vélodrome
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.78 (league 1.78) 1.02 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
27.3% 32.5% 40.2%
best score tips
0 - 1
16.8%
0 - 0
16.4%
1 - 1
13.2%
Score & goals probability table
Liverpool
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marseille 0 16.4% 16.8% 8.6% 2.9% 0.7% 0.2%
1 12.9% 13.2% 6.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
2 5.1% 5.2% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 1.3% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMarseilleLiverpool
Played55
Form60%60%
Attack77%62%
Defense54%54%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 28 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.26 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

83%
FT probability

2.5+

58%
FT probability

3.5+

41%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Marseille Liverpool
HATHAT
Played336336
Wins67%33%50%67%67%67%
Draws0%0%0%0%0%0%
Loses33%67%50%33%33%33%

Form: Marseille: LWLLWW • Liverpool: WLWWLW

League goals

Metric Marseille Liverpool
HATHAT
GF total65115611
GF avg2.01.71.81.72.01.8
GA total268628
GA avg0.72.01.32.00.71.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMarseilleLiverpool
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.583%83%83%67%
1.550%50%33%33%
2.533%0%33%17%
3.517%0%17%17%
4.50%0%17%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMarseilleLiverpool
HATHAT
Clean sheets101112
Failed to score101011

Penalties

MetricMarseilleLiverpool
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricMarseilleLiverpool
Wins12
Draws00
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-02-33-21-5
Biggest losses0-12-11-41-0
Goals For4335
Goals Against1241

Model comparison

MetricMarseilleLiverpool
Form50%50%
Att56%44%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution41%59%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total49.3%50.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Liverpool

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.78 @ 1xBet
Draw4.00 @ 1xBet
Away1.99 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.60 @ Betano
Under 2.52.54 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.53 @ William Hill
No2.67 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Marseille = 0.78 (league 1.78), Liverpool = 1.02 (league 1.37)

Liverpool
0 1 2 3 4 5
Marseille 0 16.4% 16.8% 8.6% 2.9% 0.7% 0.2%
1 12.9% 13.2% 6.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
2 5.1% 5.2% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 1.3% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 27.3% · Draw 32.5% · Away win 40.2%

vtt 2 , vtd1