Thu, Nov 27 2025 • 20:00 • Stadio Artemio Franchi
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.29 (league 1.64) 0.86 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
66.5% 18.0% 12.6%
best score tips
2 - 0
11.2%
1 - 0
9.8%
2 - 1
9.7%
Score & goals probability table
AEK Athens FC
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fiorentina 0 4.3% 3.7% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 9.8% 8.5% 3.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
2 11.2% 9.7% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
3 8.5% 7.4% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
4 4.9% 4.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
5 2.2% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFiorentinaAEK Athens FC
Played55
Form80%53%
Attack86%79%
Defense71%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)12 | 2.411 | 2.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.85 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

86%
FT probability

2.5+

60%
FT probability

3.5+

43%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Fiorentina AEK Athens FC
HATHAT
Played235549
Wins100%67%80%80%0%44%
Draws0%0%0%20%75%44%
Loses0%33%20%0%25%11%

Form: Fiorentina: WWWWL • AEK Athens FC: WDDWDWLWD

League goals

Metric Fiorentina AEK Athens FC
HATHAT
GF total571213417
GF avg2.52.32.42.61.01.9
GA total224268
GA avg1.00.70.80.41.50.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFiorentinaAEK Athens FC
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%40%89%56%
1.580%40%44%22%
2.560%0%22%11%
3.50%0%11%0%
4.50%0%11%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFiorentinaAEK Athens FC
HATHAT
Clean sheets123314
Failed to score000011

Penalties

MetricFiorentinaAEK Athens FC
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricFiorentinaAEK Athens FC
Wins41
Draws02
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-36-0—
Biggest losses—2-1—3-1
Goals For3362
Goals Against2213

Model comparison

MetricFiorentinaAEK Athens FC
Form60%40%
Att52%48%
Def56%44%
Poisson Distribution72%28%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total60.0%40.0%

Advice: Double chance : Fiorentina or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.83 @ Unibet
Draw3.80 @ Betano
Away5.20 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.00 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.88 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.94 @ 188Bet
No1.97 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Fiorentina = 2.29 (league 1.64), AEK Athens FC = 0.86 (league 1.16)

AEK Athens FC
0 1 2 3 4 5
Fiorentina 0 4.3% 3.7% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 9.8% 8.5% 3.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
2 11.2% 9.7% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
3 8.5% 7.4% 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
4 4.9% 4.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
5 2.2% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 66.5% · Draw 18.0% · Away win 12.6%

Vtot 24 , Vtod1