Thu, Dec 11 2025 • 20:00 • Stadion Poznan
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.83 (league 1.64) 0.30 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
74.1% 19.4% 5.4%
best score tips
1 - 0
21.7%
2 - 0
19.8%
3 - 0
12.1%
Score & goals probability table
FSV Mainz 05
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lech Poznan 0 11.8% 3.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 21.7% 6.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
2 19.8% 6.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 12.1% 3.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 5.5% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLech PoznanFSV Mainz 05
Played45
Form50%80%
Attack90%80%
Defense40%70%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 2.38 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.53 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

81%
FT probability

2.5+

57%
FT probability

3.5+

40%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Lech Poznan FSV Mainz 05
HATHAT
Played224336
Wins100%0%50%100%33%67%
Draws0%0%0%0%0%0%
Loses0%100%50%0%67%33%

Form: Lech Poznan: WLLW • FSV Mainz 05: LWWWWL

League goals

Metric Lech Poznan FSV Mainz 05
HATHAT
GF total639729
GF avg3.01.52.32.30.71.5
GA total156235
GA avg0.52.51.50.71.00.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLech PoznanFSV Mainz 05
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%75%83%67%
1.575%50%33%17%
2.525%25%17%0%
3.525%0%17%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLech PoznanFSV Mainz 05
HATHAT
Clean sheets101112
Failed to score000011

Penalties

MetricLech PoznanFSV Mainz 05
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricLech PoznanFSV Mainz 05
Wins14
Draws00
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-1—4-10-1
Biggest losses—3-2—2-1
Goals For4241
Goals Against1312

Model comparison

MetricLech PoznanFSV Mainz 05
Form33%67%
Att53%47%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution86%14%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total51.3%48.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or FSV Mainz 05

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.87 @ 1xBet
Draw3.70 @ Bet365
Away2.46 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.88 @ 188Bet
Under 2.52.36 @ SBO

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.72 @ 188Bet
No2.50 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Lech Poznan = 1.83 (league 1.64), FSV Mainz 05 = 0.30 (league 1.16)

FSV Mainz 05
0 1 2 3 4 5
Lech Poznan 0 11.8% 3.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 21.7% 6.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
2 19.8% 6.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 12.1% 3.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 5.5% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 74.1% · Draw 19.4% · Away win 5.4%

vtt 6 , vtd1