Thu, Dec 18 2025 • 20:00 • AFAS Stadion
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.49 (league 1.61) 0.20 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
70.5% 24.3% 4.8%
best score tips
1 - 0
27.4%
2 - 0
20.5%
0 - 0
18.3%
Score & goals probability table
Jagiellonia
0 1 2 3 4 5
AZ Alkmaar 0 18.3% 3.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 27.4% 5.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 20.5% 4.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 10.2% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 3.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAZ AlkmaarJagiellonia
Played55
Form60%53%
Attack88%63%
Defense13%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.45 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.44 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

78%
FT probability

2.5+

55%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric AZ Alkmaar Jagiellonia
HATHAT
Played56116511
Wins100%50%73%67%40%55%
Draws0%0%0%17%60%36%
Loses0%50%27%17%0%9%

Form: AZ Alkmaar: LWWWWWLWLWW • Jagiellonia: WWWDWDWDDWL

League goals

Metric AZ Alkmaar Jagiellonia
HATHAT
GF total15102511617
GF avg3.01.72.31.81.21.5
GA total11112549
GA avg0.21.81.10.80.80.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAZ AlkmaarJagiellonia
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.591%36%100%64%
1.564%27%36%18%
2.545%27%18%0%
3.518%18%0%0%
4.59%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAZ AlkmaarJagiellonia
HATHAT
Clean sheets437314
Failed to score011000

Penalties

MetricAZ AlkmaarJagiellonia
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricAZ AlkmaarJagiellonia
Wins53
Draws02
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-00-33-01-2
Biggest losses—4-01-2—
Goals For5332
Goals Against1421

Model comparison

MetricAZ AlkmaarJagiellonia
Form53%47%
Att58%42%
Def36%64%
Poisson Distribution87%13%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total58.5%41.5%

Advice: Double chance : AZ Alkmaar or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.52 @ 188Bet
Draw5.40 @ 1xBet
Away7.70 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.71 @ SBO
Under 2.53.13 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.71 @ 188Bet
No2.40 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): AZ Alkmaar = 1.49 (league 1.61), Jagiellonia = 0.20 (league 1.18)

Jagiellonia
0 1 2 3 4 5
AZ Alkmaar 0 18.3% 3.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 27.4% 5.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 20.5% 4.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 10.2% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 3.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 70.5% · Draw 24.3% · Away win 4.8%

vtt 11 , vtd1