Fri, Oct 3 2025 • 14:30 • National Stadium Vasil Levski
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.47 (league 1.33) 1.32 (league 1.09)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
40.5% 25.3% 33.6%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.9%
1 - 0
9.0%
2 - 1
8.8%
Score & goals probability table
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0 1 2 3 4 5
Septemvri Sofia 0 6.1% 8.1% 5.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2%
1 9.0% 11.9% 7.9% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3%
2 6.7% 8.8% 5.8% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
3 3.3% 4.3% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
4 1.2% 1.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSeptemvri SofiaLokomotiv Plovdiv
Played55
Form27%53%
Attack44%56%
Defense0%22%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.85 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.87 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

75%
FT probability

2.5+

53%
FT probability

3.5+

38%
FT probability

BTTS

74%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Septemvri Sofia Lokomotiv Plovdiv
HATHAT
Played55105510
Wins40%0%20%80%20%50%
Draws0%20%10%20%60%40%
Loses60%80%70%0%20%10%

Form: Septemvri Sofia: LLLLWLWLLD • Lokomotiv Plovdiv: WDWDWDWDLW

League goals

Metric Septemvri Sofia Lokomotiv Plovdiv
HATHAT
GF total73106410
GF avg1.40.61.01.20.81.0
GA total91322279
GA avg1.82.62.20.41.40.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSeptemvri SofiaLokomotiv Plovdiv
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.580%90%80%60%
1.520%70%20%10%
2.50%40%0%10%
3.50%10%0%10%
4.50%10%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSeptemvri SofiaLokomotiv Plovdiv
HATHAT
Clean sheets101314
Failed to score022022

Penalties

MetricSeptemvri SofiaLokomotiv Plovdiv
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricSeptemvri SofiaLokomotiv Plovdiv
Wins11
Draws01
Losses41

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-12-11-2
Biggest losses1-35-04-0
Goals For2122
Goals Against3514

Model comparison

MetricSeptemvri SofiaLokomotiv Plovdiv
Form33%67%
Att44%56%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution49%51%
H2h40%60%
Goals50%50%
Total43.3%56.7%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.96 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.35 @ Unibet
Away2.05 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.26 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.68 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.09 @ 188Bet
No1.85 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Septemvri Sofia = 1.47 (league 1.33), Lokomotiv Plovdiv = 1.32 (league 1.09)

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0 1 2 3 4 5
Septemvri Sofia 0 6.1% 8.1% 5.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2%
1 9.0% 11.9% 7.9% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3%
2 6.7% 8.8% 5.8% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
3 3.3% 4.3% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
4 1.2% 1.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 40.5% · Draw 25.3% · Away win 33.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1