Mon, Feb 16 2026 • 13:00 • Stadion Lokomotiv
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.59 (league 1.32) 0.90 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
52.8% 25.2% 21.4%
best score tips
1 - 0
13.2%
1 - 1
11.9%
2 - 0
10.4%
Score & goals probability table
Montana
0 1 2 3 4 5
Septemvri Sofia 0 8.3% 7.5% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
1 13.2% 11.9% 5.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
2 10.4% 9.4% 4.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
3 5.5% 5.0% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 2.2% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSeptemvri SofiaMontana
Played55
Form7%13%
Attack8%15%
Defense0%38%
Goals For (tot | avg)1 | 0.22 | 0.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)16 | 3.28 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

79%
FT probability

2.5+

56%
FT probability

3.5+

40%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Septemvri Sofia Montana
HATHAT
Played91120101020
Wins22%18%20%20%10%15%
Draws11%18%15%30%30%30%
Loses67%64%65%50%60%55%

Form: Septemvri Sofia: LLLLWLWLLDDWLLWLLLDL • Montana: LDLDLWWWLLLDDLLLDLDL

League goals

Metric Septemvri Sofia Montana
HATHAT
GF total109199514
GF avg1.10.81.00.90.50.7
GA total182644151934
GA avg2.02.42.21.51.91.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSeptemvri SofiaMontana
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.565%85%65%70%
1.520%65%5%50%
2.55%35%0%30%
3.55%15%0%10%
4.50%10%0%10%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSeptemvri SofiaMontana
HATHAT
Clean sheets123336
Failed to score257257

Penalties

MetricSeptemvri SofiaMontana
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total31

Streaks

MetricSeptemvri SofiaMontana
Wins13
Draws22
Losses43

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-11-42-00-1
Biggest losses1-47-01-55-0
Goals For2421
Goals Against4755

Model comparison

MetricSeptemvri SofiaMontana
Form33%67%
Att33%67%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution64%36%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total43.8%56.2%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Montana

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.73 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.15 @ 188Bet
Away2.88 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.34 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.62 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.97 @ 188Bet
No1.88 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Septemvri Sofia = 1.59 (league 1.32), Montana = 0.90 (league 1.11)

Montana
0 1 2 3 4 5
Septemvri Sofia 0 8.3% 7.5% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
1 13.2% 11.9% 5.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
2 10.4% 9.4% 4.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
3 5.5% 5.0% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
4 2.2% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 52.8% · Draw 25.2% · Away win 21.4%

vtt 2 , vtd1