Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 14:00 •
Albena Stadium
Expected Goals
2.64 (league 1.39)
1.15 (league 0.97)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 63.9% | 16.5% | 14.3% |
best score tips
2 - 1
9.0%
3 - 1
8.0%
2 - 0
7.8%
Score & goals probability table
| CSKA Sofia II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Fratria | 0 | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 6.0% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.9% | 9.1% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 6.9% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 4.6% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 2.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Fratria carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 28 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Fratria +16.8, CSKA Sofia II -2.2.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Fratria
vs
CSKA Sofia II
Elo gapFratria +28
Home / draw / away39% / 27% / 34%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo3147.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3147.2
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Fratria | CSKA Sofia II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1569.9 | 1577.3 |
| Form Elo | 1575.4 | 1585.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1536.7 | 1514.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1631.6 | 1626.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1566 | 1594.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +16.8 | -2.2 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Fratria last-5 Elo change: +16.8; CSKA Sofia II last-5 Elo change: -2.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Fratria | CSKA Sofia II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 60% |
| Attack | 50% | 56% |
| Defense | 78% | 72% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Fratria | CSKA Sofia II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 14 | 27 | 15 | 13 | 28 |
| Wins | 77% | 43% | 59% | 67% | 31% | 50% |
| Draws | 8% | 43% | 26% | 20% | 23% | 21% |
| Loses | 15% | 14% | 15% | 13% | 46% | 29% |
FratriaWWWWWWWLWDWLWLWDWWDDWLDDWWD
CSKA Sofia IILLWLWLDDWDWWWWLDWDDWWLWLLWWW
League goals
| Metric | Fratria | CSKA Sofia II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 30 | 20 | 50 | 32 | 18 | 50 |
| GF avg | 2.3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 11 | 12 | 23 | 7 | 21 | 28 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Fratria | CSKA Sofia II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 85% | 63% | 79% | 61% |
| 1.5 | 52% | 15% | 39% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 4% | 21% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 4% | 18% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 7% | 0% | 11% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Fratria | CSKA Sofia II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Fratria | CSKA Sofia II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Fratria | CSKA Sofia II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 7 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-3 | 6-0 | 2-6 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 2-0 | 0-1 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Fratria | CSKA Sofia II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 47% | 53% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 71% | 29% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 13% | 88% |
| Total | 47.4% | 52.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.66 @ Unibet
Draw3.60 @ Bet365
Away5.00 @ Bet365
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.90 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.90 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.82 @ Marathonbet
No1.85 @ 1xBet
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League standings
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