Sat, May 2 2026 • 15:00 •
Hristo Botev
Expected Goals
0.97 (league 1.40)
0.46 (league 0.98)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 46.9% | 36.0% | 17.1% |
best score tips
0 - 0
24.1%
1 - 0
23.2%
2 - 0
11.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Marek | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Pirin Blagoevgrad | 0 | 24.1% | 11.0% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.2% | 5.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Pirin Blagoevgrad -10.2, Marek +36.0.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Pirin Blagoevgrad
vs
Marek
Elo gapMarek +17
Home / draw / away35% / 28% / 37%
Expected home share48%
Combined Elo2971.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2971.7
Elo home share
48%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Pirin Blagoevgrad | Marek |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1460.1 | 1511.6 |
| Form Elo | 1453.5 | 1530.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1490.6 | 1489.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1454.3 | 1434.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1519 | 1519.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -10.2 | +36.0 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Pirin Blagoevgrad last-5 Elo change: -10.2; Marek last-5 Elo change: +36.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Pirin Blagoevgrad | Marek |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 73% |
| Attack | 23% | 18% |
| Defense | 68% | 95% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 1 | 0.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
59%
FT probability
2.5+
42%
FT probability
3.5+
30%
FT probability
BTTS
59%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Pirin Blagoevgrad | Marek | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 14 | 28 |
| Wins | 29% | 29% | 29% | 36% | 21% | 29% |
| Draws | 50% | 21% | 36% | 36% | 29% | 32% |
| Loses | 21% | 50% | 36% | 29% | 50% | 39% |
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MarekWDDLLLDLDLDWWLWLLLLDLDWDWWDW
League goals
| Metric | Pirin Blagoevgrad | Marek | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 22 | 34 | 15 | 7 | 22 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 12 | 23 | 35 | 13 | 21 | 34 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Pirin Blagoevgrad | Marek | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 68% | 64% | 64% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 39% | 11% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 14% | 4% | 18% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 4% | 0% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Pirin Blagoevgrad | Marek | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Pirin Blagoevgrad | Marek |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Pirin Blagoevgrad | Marek |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 2-5 | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 4-2 | 1-3 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Pirin Blagoevgrad | Marek |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 31% | 69% |
| Att | 56% | 44% |
| Def | 13% | 88% |
| Poisson Distribution | 70% | 30% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 64% | 36% |
| Total | 50.8% | 49.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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