Fri, Sep 19 2025 • 00:30 • Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.50 (league 1.47) 1.12 (league 0.93)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
45.7% 25.7% 28.1%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.2%
1 - 0
10.9%
2 - 1
9.2%
Score & goals probability table
FBC Melgar
0 1 2 3 4 5
Deportivo Garcilaso 0 7.3% 8.1% 4.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
1 10.9% 12.2% 6.8% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2%
2 8.2% 9.2% 5.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
3 4.1% 4.6% 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.6% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDeportivo GarcilasoFBC Melgar
Played55
Form60%33%
Attack73%55%
Defense45%36%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.66 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.27 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

3 - 5 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Deportivo Garcilaso FBC Melgar
HATHAT
Played131326131326
Wins54%38%46%46%31%38%
Draws15%38%27%23%54%38%
Loses31%23%27%31%15%23%

Form: Deportivo Garcilaso: DWWWDWWLWLLLLWLWDLWDWDDWDW • FBC Melgar: WWWWWWLLDDWDDWDLDDWLDDLWDL

League goals

Metric Deportivo Garcilaso FBC Melgar
HATHAT
GF total221941191736
GF avg1.71.51.61.51.31.4
GA total111526131730
GA avg0.81.21.01.01.31.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDeportivo GarcilasoFBC Melgar
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.573%65%85%81%
1.550%23%38%27%
2.523%12%12%4%
3.512%0%4%4%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDeportivo GarcilasoFBC Melgar
HATHAT
Clean sheets459325
Failed to score347224

Penalties

MetricDeportivo GarcilasoFBC Melgar
Scored (total | %)6 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total62

Streaks

MetricDeportivo GarcilasoFBC Melgar
Wins36
Draws22
Losses42

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-00-34-02-3
Biggest losses1-33-20-24-1
Goals For4443
Goals Against3324

Model comparison

MetricDeportivo GarcilasoFBC Melgar
Form64%36%
Att57%43%
Def54%46%
Poisson Distribution57%43%
H2h62%38%
Goals53%47%
Total57.8%42.2%

Advice: Double chance : Deportivo Garcilaso or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.10 @ Bet365
Draw3.45 @ Unibet
Away2.49 @ Dafabet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.11 @ SBO
Under 2.51.81 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.84 @ 188Bet
No1.97 @ Dafabet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Deportivo Garcilaso = 1.50 (league 1.47), FBC Melgar = 1.12 (league 0.93)

FBC Melgar
0 1 2 3 4 5
Deportivo Garcilaso 0 7.3% 8.1% 4.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
1 10.9% 12.2% 6.8% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2%
2 8.2% 9.2% 5.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
3 4.1% 4.6% 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.6% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 45.7% · Draw 25.7% · Away win 28.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1