Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 10:00 •
Estadio Municipal de Deportes
Expected Goals
1.57 (league 1.37)
1.70 (league 1.06)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 35.2% | 23.1% | 40.4% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.1%
1 - 2
8.6%
2 - 1
8.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Castellón II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Barbastro | 0 | 3.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 5.9% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 4.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 2.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Barbastro carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 45 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Barbastro +4.3, Castellón II -29.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Barbastro
vs
Castellón II
Elo gapBarbastro +45
Home / draw / away42% / 25% / 33%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo3015.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3015.4
Elo home share
56%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Barbastro | Castellón II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1512.9 | 1502.5 |
| Form Elo | 1528 | 1491.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1487.5 | 1499.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1427.8 | 1660.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1615.1 | 1333.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +4.3 | -29.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Barbastro last-5 Elo change: +4.3; Castellón II last-5 Elo change: -29.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Barbastro | Castellón II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 27% |
| Attack | 25% | 38% |
| Defense | 81% | 31% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 11 | 2.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Barbastro | Castellón II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 25% | 25% | 25% | 31% | 31% | 31% |
| Draws | 38% | 44% | 41% | 38% | 19% | 28% |
| Loses | 38% | 31% | 34% | 31% | 50% | 41% |
BarbastroDDWLLWWDLLDDLWLDLLDDLDDDDWWLDLWW
Castellón IILWLWDWLDWDWLLLLLDDDWWLWDWDLLLWDL
League goals
| Metric | Barbastro | Castellón II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 14 | 28 | 26 | 28 | 54 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 16 | 14 | 30 | 28 | 39 | 67 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Barbastro | Castellón II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 53% | 72% | 75% | 94% |
| 1.5 | 25% | 19% | 50% | 63% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 3% | 31% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 13% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Barbastro | Castellón II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 7 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Barbastro | Castellón II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Barbastro | Castellón II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-3 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 1-0 | 0-4 | 7-3 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Barbastro | Castellón II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 64% | 36% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 79% | 21% |
| Poisson Distribution | 47% | 53% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 75% | 25% |
| Total | 61.0% | 39.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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