Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 08:00 •
Seshego Stadium
Expected Goals
0.42 (league 1.51)
1.20 (league 1.35)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 12.9% | 31.1% | 55.8% |
best score tips
0 - 1
23.8%
0 - 0
19.8%
0 - 2
14.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Orlando Pirates U23 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Magesi U23 | 0 | 19.8% | 23.8% | 14.3% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 9.9% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Orlando Pirates U23 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 173 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Magesi U23 +11.9, Orlando Pirates U23 -4.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Magesi U23
vs
Orlando Pirates U23
Elo gapOrlando Pirates U23 +173
Home / draw / away22% / 18% / 60%
Expected home share27%
Combined Elo3042.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3042.3
Elo home share
27%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Magesi U23 | Orlando Pirates U23 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1417 | 1625.3 |
| Form Elo | 1417.4 | 1626.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1472.9 | 1575.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1351.4 | 1627.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1429.9 | 1646.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +11.9 | -4.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Magesi U23 last-5 Elo change: +11.9; Orlando Pirates U23 last-5 Elo change: -4.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Magesi U23 | Orlando Pirates U23 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Attack | 0% | 0% |
| Defense | 0% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
47%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Magesi U23 | Orlando Pirates U23 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 14 | 27 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| Wins | 23% | 21% | 22% | 77% | 69% | 73% |
| Draws | 46% | 21% | 33% | 8% | 15% | 12% |
| Loses | 31% | 57% | 44% | 15% | 15% | 15% |
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League goals
| Metric | Magesi U23 | Orlando Pirates U23 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 10 | 22 | 30 | 24 | 54 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| GA total | 12 | 26 | 38 | 9 | 9 | 18 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Magesi U23 | Orlando Pirates U23 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 52% | 67% | 92% | 46% |
| 1.5 | 22% | 37% | 65% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 7% | 22% | 31% | 4% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 11% | 12% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 4% | 8% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Magesi U23 | Orlando Pirates U23 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Magesi U23 | Orlando Pirates U23 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Magesi U23 | Orlando Pirates U23 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 6 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 5 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-3 | 5-0 | 1-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 5-0 | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Magesi U23 | Orlando Pirates U23 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 30% | 70% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 25% | 75% |
| H2h | 13% | 88% |
| Goals | 13% | 88% |
| Total | 24.5% | 75.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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