Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 12:00 •
Sportpark De Toekomst
Expected Goals
7.08 (league 1.69)
0.05 (league 1.63)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 28.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
best score tips
5 - 0
11.9%
4 - 0
8.4%
3 - 0
4.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Heerenveen W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ajax W | 0 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 8.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 11.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ajax W | Heerenveen W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 78% | 11% |
| Attack | 37% | 21% |
| Defense | 100% | 58% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 2.3 | 4 | 1.3 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2.7 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
8.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
82%
FT probability
3.5+
58%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ajax W | Heerenveen W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 100% | 50% | 67% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 0% | 50% | 33% | 0% | 100% | 33% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 67% |
Form: Ajax W: WWD • Heerenveen W: LDL
League goals
| Metric | Ajax W | Heerenveen W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 6 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| GF avg | 6.0 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ajax W | Heerenveen W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 0% | 100% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 0% | 33% | 100% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ajax W | Heerenveen W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ajax W | Heerenveen W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ajax W | Heerenveen W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-0 | 0-1 | — | — |
| Biggest losses | — | — | 1-3 | — |
| Goals For | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ajax W | Heerenveen W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 88% | 13% |
| Att | 64% | 36% |
| Def | 100% | 0% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 74% | 26% |
| Total | 76.5% | 23.8% |
Advice: Combo Winner : Ajax W and +1.5 goals
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Ajax W = 7.08 (league 1.69), Heerenveen W = 0.05 (league 1.63)
| Heerenveen W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ajax W | 0 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 8.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 11.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 28.9% · Draw 0.1% · Away win 0.0%
Vtot 1 , Vtod1