Sun, Oct 12 2025 • 12:30 •
Sportpark De Toekomst
Expected Goals
2.95 (league 1.69)
0.46 (league 1.63)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 79.1% | 9.6% | 3.4% |
best score tips
2 - 0
14.4%
3 - 0
14.1%
4 - 0
10.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Excelsior W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ajax W | 0 | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.7% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 14.1% | 6.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 10.4% | 4.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 6.1% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ajax W | Excelsior W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 4 |
| Form | 83% | 25% |
| Attack | 92% | 33% |
| Defense | 92% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.8 | 4 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.3 | 6 | 1.5 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
6.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
68%
FT probability
3.5+
49%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ajax W | Excelsior W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Wins | 100% | 50% | 75% | 0% | 50% | 25% |
| Draws | 0% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 50% | 75% |
Form: Ajax W: WWDW • Excelsior W: LLWL
League goals
| Metric | Ajax W | Excelsior W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 10 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| GF avg | 5.0 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ajax W | Excelsior W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 75% | 25% | 50% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 25% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 25% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ajax W | Excelsior W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ajax W | Excelsior W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ajax W | Excelsior W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-0 | 0-1 | — | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | — | — | 1-3 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ajax W | Excelsior W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 77% | 23% |
| Att | 73% | 27% |
| Def | 86% | 14% |
| Poisson Distribution | 87% | 13% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 82% | 18% |
| Total | 81.0% | 19.0% |
Advice: Winner : Ajax W
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Ajax W = 2.95 (league 1.69), Excelsior W = 0.46 (league 1.63)
| Excelsior W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ajax W | 0 | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.7% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 14.1% | 6.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 10.4% | 4.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 6.1% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 79.1% · Draw 9.6% · Away win 3.4%
Vtot 1 , Vtod1